Florida State has had extra time to prepare for Alabama, and Mike Norvell sure needed it. SMU rolled up 585 yards in the Seminoles’ 27-24 loss while Ashton Daniels and the offense managed 324. Now comes the first road trip, to Tuscaloosa, where Alabama returns from Kentucky with a 45-17 win. The Tide are dealing with some some quarterback aggravation of their own. Norvell has to find a way to keep his quarterback upright against the defense that smothered Kentucky after halftime. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Florida State Seminoles.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Alabama vs. FSU prediction, preview
Daniels has already spent too many possessions getting blown up in his own backfield. He and the Noles managed just 4.8 yards per play against SMU. Daniels’ season passing average sits at 6.5 yards per attempt, which is just about average. They’ve allowed, however, sacks on 8% of all passing downs, and that number isn’t likely to go down today. Alabama’s front can keep crowding the run until Daniels makes them cover the receivers downfield. I have trouble seeing Daniels transcend this defense consistently. The Tide have allowed just 1.2 yards per carry, so Florida State may end up saddling Daniels with too many third-and-longs.
Kentucky found out how unpleasant that can become against this defense. The Wildcats led 17-13 at halftime, having benefited from three Alabama turnovers and scored directly on an interception return. Then they went scoreless for the entire second half. Kenny Minchey finished with 146 passing yards on 31 attempts, scarcely enough to punish Alabama at all, really. It was just the turnovers. I came away from that game convinced of what this Tide defense can do.
Keelon Russell deserves some scrutiny at quarterback, too. He’s averaged only 5.8 yards per play, and he’s taken sacks at a rate equivalent to 9% of its pass attempts. Some of those are on him alone. We best allow for more wasted drives Saturday. Florida State will afford Russell chances to recover, though: opponents have averaged 8.9 yards per attempt and converted 58% of their third downs on this porous Noles defense.
FSU vs. Alabama pick, best bet
Florida State will have to defend those underneath throws with fewer linebackers available this week. Blake Nichelson faces an extended absence, and freshmen Izayia Williams and Daylen Green already suffered season-ending injuries. I expect DeBoer and Russell to be exploiting the underneath lanes today til the cows come home. FSU can have all the prep time it wants; this Tide team is simply talented to the point where I’m not concerned about good execution.
I’m laying the 18.5 with Alabama and projecting 34-10. Russell’s mistakes keep me from forecasting another score in the mid-40s, but, after the SMU game, I have little confidence in the Seminoles managing that often enough to keep Alabama within three touchdowns.
Best bet: Alabama -18.5 (-110).
Projected score: Alabama 34, Florida State 10.
Best Bet: Alabama -18.5 (-110) vs. FSU
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