A 4-2 win allowed the Rangers (75-76) to keep pace in the wide-open AL West. Trailing the Astros by one game for the division lead, every game down the stretch will be crucial for Texas. It’s not quite as dire for the Red Sox (82-69), a club that is all but guaranteed the American League’s second wild card spot. Still, Boston is eager to officially clinch a postseason berth. Which side will come out on top tonight in Arlington?
The Red Sox are favorites (-112) over the Rangers; the over/under is set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Wednesday’s showdown between Boston and Texas on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Red Sox vs. Rangers pick, best bet today
- Rangers ML (-108): Texas has more to play for tonight, featuring an offense that does damage against lefties. In comparison, Bennett hasn’t been at his best in recent weeks. Gore’s stellar play at home doesn’t bode well for Boston’s middling group of hitters either.
Red Sox vs. Rangers prediction, preview
Boston has done an exceptional job at developing big league-caliber pitching over the past few years. Jake Bennett is this franchise’s latest success story. The 25-year-old has notched a 3.69 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 83 strikeouts (7.1 K/9) over 105.0 innings this season. Unlike most other young pitchers, the southpaw’s greatest strength is command. He’s delivered a stellar 1.6 BB/9 ratio, limiting free passes better than just about anyone. However, it’s fair to express some concern for the rookie over the past few months. Bennett is on the hook for a 5.35 ERA over his previous six appearances.
On paper, this looks like a potential bounce back spot for Boston’s starting pitcher. The Rangers are averaging just 4.16 runs per game, sixth-worst in the league this season. With that beings said, Bennett could find himself struggling during tonight’s matchup Texas has recorded an American League-best .764 OPS against left-handed pitching. That number jumps up to a whopping .881 OPS when playing at home, easily best in the majors. Star shortstop Corey Seager is batting .302 with five homers and 11 RBIs during the month of September.
In this battle between lefties, MacKenzie Gore will take the hill for Texas. It’s been a disappointing debut since getting traded this offseason. Through 161.2 innings of work (31 starts), he’s on the hook for a 4.62 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 172 strikeouts (9.6 K/9). With that being said, he’s been a much different hurler at home (3.36 ERA). Gore’s advanced metrics don’t stand out; there’s nothing here that suggests he’s been the victim of bad luck. With that being said, his 4.02 xERA and 24.4% strikeout rate aren’t anything to sneeze at. Pitching at Globe Life Field, baseball’s second-most pitcher friendly venue per Savant, certainly helps.
Despite an anemic start to their season, the Red Sox have turned things around offensively. With that being said, this group hasn’t been at its best in recent weeks. The team has scored 32 runs over its last ten contests, fourth-worst in the big leagues. Typically, Boston ranks as one of baseball’s better lineups against southpaws. However, that hasn’t been the case as of late. The Sox have an American League-worst 75 wRC+ against lefties since August 1st. The continued absence of right-handed hitter Cedanne Rafaela (quad) hasn’t helped matters.
Gore has been a roller coaster all season, but his success at Globe Life is difficult to ignore. The opposite is true of these Boston bats, suddenly vulnerable against left-handed pitching. Bennett hasn’t been himself lately either, and now faces a Texas offense that rakes against southpaws (especially at home). Back the Rangers as slight underdogs this evening in Arlington.
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