A late surge gave the Yankees (87-63) an 8-3 victory over the Twins (70-80) on Monday night. Now, the Yankees will attempt to secure a series victory this evening at Target Field. Toeing the slab for New York will be Max Fried, a key piece in this rotation looking for stability prior to the start of the postseason. Can Minnesota’s lineup power its way to an upset on Tuesday at home?
The Yankees are favorites (-184) over the Twins; the over/under is set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s showdown between New York and Minnesota on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Yankees vs. Twins pick, best bet today
- Yankees -1.5 (-104): Minnesota’s hitters struggle against southpaws, and Fried is one of baseball’s best. Ober coughs up home runs and hard hits, a specialty for this New York offense. The Yankees are set up nicely for a third straight victory on Tuesday night.
Yankees vs. Twins prediction, preview
Despite the final score, it took some time for the Yankees to get it going at the plate. A dominant eighth inning led to seven runs, including a three-run bomb off the bat of Aaron Judge. The superstar slugger just got activated off of the injured list last week. His return bolsters what had been an inconsistent, and often frustrating, New York offense. With that being said, the Pinstripes are starting to look like their old selves at the plate; a 112 wRC+ since the start of September is tenth-best in the majors. As always, the Yankees are a threat to go deep. Their 207 home runs lead the American League, even more impressive when considering Judge’s three-month absence.
Getting through tonight’s game unscathed could prove difficult for Bailey Ober. In fairness to the right-hander, he’s certainly capable of holding his own on the mound. Through 117.2 innings pitched, he’s recorded a 4.28 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 85 strikeouts (6.5 K/9). That includes a terrific 3.16 ERA when taking the mound at home. With that being said, this could be a difficult matchup for the sixth-year pro. Ober does a poor job at limiting quality contact, putting up a 15th percentile barrel rate (9.8%) and ninth percentile ground ball rate (34.8%). As previously mentioned, the Yankees hit their fair share of long balls. In addition, New York’s offense owns the league’s second-highest hard-hit rate (41.9%).
The Pinstripes will hand the ball to Fried, one of their top arms. Unfortunately for the southpaw, injuries have derailed what was shaping up to be another stellar campaign. Over 99.0 innings pitched (18 starts), he’s put up a 2.73 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 94 strikeouts (8.5 K/9). In an effort to save his ace for the postseason, manager Aaron Boone has put the 32-year-old on a pitch limit. During his last time out, the veteran was pulled during the fourth inning vs. the Rockies. New York will be hoping for an improved performance this evening from the ground ball specialist.
There’s a decent chance that comes to fruition tonight at pitcher-friendly Target Field. The Twins, despite some midseason hope, have been a disappointment offensively in recent weeks. Minnesota has scored 163 runs since August 1st, fifth-fewest in the big leagues during that time. Fried in particular presents a problem for these hitters. The Twins have produced a .678 OPS against left-handed pitching, also fifth-worst in baseball. Franchise cornerstone Byron Buxton (hip) is done for the year, while key bats Royce Lewis (shoulder), Trevor Larnach (wrist) and Kaelen Culpepper (shoulder) are listed as day-to-day.
Minnesota is slumping in recent weeks at the plate. Facing off against one of the sport’s better lefties doesn’t inspire much confidence. On the other side, Ober’s knack for giving up hard contact could cause trouble against a power-laden Yankees offense. A comfortable win for the visitors wouldn’t come as a surprise.
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