Kyler Murray takes over as QB1 in Minnesota, after flaming out in Arizona. This should be the best offense that Murray has been a part of in his career, and I’m high on the Vikings this season.
I’ve backed Minnesota to go over its win total, and also am backing the moneyline at home in Week 1. While Murray should have success through the air with this new offense, he’s always been one to scramble when the situation calls for it. Let’s breakdown Murray’s rushing prop in Week 1 against the Packers.
Kyler Murray rushing yards pick vs. Packers
As a Vikings backer for 2026, I’m pretty excited to see what this offense looks like on Sunday against the Packers. I believe Murray can really improve the passing game compared to 2025, but he also adds a new element to the offense with his legs. Sure, he’s getting older and has had some injuries, but Murray is always able to fall back on his ability to improvise when a play breaksdown.
Murray’s fresh and healthy to begin the season, which is one of my favorite spots to bet a QB to go over their rushing prop. He’s on a prove it contract, and should be willing to go all out to win his debut with the Vikings in front of a home crowd. That means not holding back when the chance to make a big play on the ground arises.
This number is set too low from what we’ve seen from Murray consistently throughout his career. If we go back through his career in Arizona, he averaged 33.6 rushing yards in 2024, 30.5 in 2023, 38 in 2022, 30.2 in 2021, 51.2 in 2020 and 34 as a rookie in 2019. Murray made just five starts last season before getting injured, but showed he still has the burst. He rushed for at least 25 yards in all five of those games, averaging 34.6 rushing yards per game in 2025.
The Packers did not face many mobile quarterbacks last season, but gave up yardage when they did. Tyler Huntley’s 60-rushing-yard game was one of five times an opposing QB went for over 24 yards on the ground — a list that includes Jared Goff! With Micah Parsons still sidelined, Green Bay should get less pressure on Murray, who won’t hesitate to make plays with his legs.
I think this prop is set too low, and will back Murray to go over his rushing yardage prop in NFL Week 1.
NFL Pick: Kyler Murray OVER 23.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
For more NFL Week 1 picks, check out my best bets cheat sheet at DraftKings Network.
