The Seahawks are hosting the Patriots for a Super Bowl LX rematch on Wednesday night to kick off the 2026 NFL season. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Seattle is favored by three points and this game carries a total of 44.5 points. For a full breakdown of the matchup, check out our Seahawks vs. Patriots prediction and pick.
Below, I break down my favorite Sam Darnold prop bet for Wednesday night’s matchup, focusing on his passing yards line against New England.
Sam Darnold Passing Yards Prop Bet vs. Patriots
Sam Darnold Under 228.5 Passing Yards (-113)
Darnold was terrific this past season, throwing for 4,720 yards and 30 touchdowns between the regular season and the playoffs. The quarterback averaged an elite 8.3 YPA, but still, Darnold only topped 223.8 passing yards in half of his starts.
In fact, Darnold fell short of the 200-yard mark five times, as the Seahawks were one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league. They led the NFL in rush rate (48%) and ranked third-to-last in PROE.
Darnold and the Seahawks walked away with the Vince Lombardi trophy when they faced the Patriots in the Super Bowl, but Darnold only finished with 202 passing yards, despite attempting 38 passes, which was the second-most of his campaign. Darnold only completed 50% of his attempts, as the Patriots’ defense really bothered the quarterback.
New England was awesome at defending the pass last season, giving up the fourth-fewest yards per attempt (5.6), and the club hasn’t allowed a quarterback to exceed 228.5 passing yards in 11 straight games.
Headlined by Christian Gonzalez – who just became the highest paid cornerback in the NFL on a per year basis on Tuesday – the Patriots’ pass defense should continue to be one of the best units in the league this season.
This is a tough matchup for Darnold and if the Seahawks find themselves in a positive game script, which is very possible as three-point home favorites, Seattle will likely rely on its run game, resulting in less volume for Darnold.
All in all, 228.5 passing yards is just too high of a line for Darnold in this spot and he is a great bet for under this number.
