Seven months after a 29-13 Super Bowl loss, New England gets another crack at Seattle in Wednesday’s opener. Give Drake Maye A.J. Brown, and Romeo Doubs a healthy Will Campbell, and I’m less keen on laying 3.5 against him. I’ll take my chances on the under, with Seattle still able to get home without blitzing. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Seahawks vs. Patriots prediction, preview
Campbell should be harder to beat with his knee healed (11.1% pressure rate allowed before last season’s injury; 17.9% after returning). To his right, though, Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy get a less settled pair to rush against: Alijah Vera-Tucker, coming off a lost season and an uneven camp, and Jared Wilson, newly moved to center. On five of its six Super Bowl sacks, Seattle sent four and kept seven back.
Still waiting for TreVeyon Henderson to practice after his August 24 ankle injury, and, as of this writing on Tuesday, he has not. In which case, the Patriots would end up leaning heavily on Rhamondre Stevenson and A.J. Brown. Against a defense that allowed 3.7 YPC last season, that could leave Maye with too many third-and-longs, even if he and Brown manage to show off some chemistry. Getting a throw off isn’t a given for him under pressure (20.6% pressure-to-sack rate last season), never mind moving the sticks against a defense that allowed opponents just 32.1% on third down.
Seattle has to replace Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet (1,757 rushing yards last season), with Walker in Kansas City and Charbonnet rehabbing his ACL. Brian Fleury will call his first regular-season NFL game with Jadarian Price, George Holani and Emanuel Wilson sharing carries. Price hasn’t taken a preseason carry, and yet I love everything about him. With Harold Landry on PUP and Christian Barmore missing Sunday’s practice, New England might have trouble getting those backs stopped, too. Holani will get high-leverage touches at relatively cheap prices everywhere.
Patriots vs. Seahawks pick, best bet
Sam Darnold targeted Jaxon Smith-Njigba three times on the 14 routes Christian Gonzalez covered in the Super Bowl. Smith-Njigba caught one for 16 yards. Darnold can try Cooper Kupp and AJ Barner if Gonzalez stays with Smith-Njigba again. Barner caught 52 passes for 519 yards and six touchdowns last season.
I’m taking under 44.5. I’d expect Brown to make some plays against Seattle’s injured safeties (Nick Emmanwori limited Sunday; Ty Okada didn’t practice). Even allowing for a few of those completions, I’d back Seattle to force punts once Maye is left trying to throw his way out of long yardage.
Best bet: Under 44.5 (-115).
Projected score: Seahawks 23, Patriots 20.
Best Bet: Seahawks vs. Patriots u44.5 total points (-115)
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