On April 25, a full month into the MLB season, the Los Angeles Angels had a better record than the Boston Red Sox. That night, the 10-17 Red Sox fired Alex Cora, and their fortunes changed dramatically, as they’ve gone 70-49 (a 95-win pace) under new boss Chad Tracy to almost guarantee themselves a spot in the playoffs.
Los Angeles and Boston will play the series finale of their final three-game set of the season tonight at Fenway Park. A series loss would be damaging to the Red Sox’s hopes of chasing down the New York Yankees for the top Wild Card spot in the AL, while the Angels have mathematically been eliminated from postseason contention.
The series finale is slated to begin at 6:45 p.m. ET. Ryan Johnson will start for Los Angeles, and Jake Bennett will toe the rubber for Boston.
Let’s break down this rubber match with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox Best Bets
- Under 9 (+100): A lot of games tend to go under with this Angels offense, which has been the worst in baseball since the All-Star break. In fact, each of both teams’ last five games have gone under the total.
- Wilyer Abreu 1+ Extra-Base Hits (+117): Among all the stars on the Red Sox’s roster, it’s actually Abreu who has the most WAR, and he’s well-suited to take advantage of Ryan’s pitch mix.
Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox prediction, preview
The Angels are the only team without a 100-loss season in their history, but at 55-90, they face an uphill battle if they want to extend their streak for another season. After the All-Star break, Los Angeles has gone just 17-31, below the pace of a 62-win team, and no team has posted an OPS worse than its .620 across that span. Mike Trout has been in an extended slump, slashing just .256/.350/.359 since returning from a hamstring injury at the start of July, and Jo Adell only remembered how to hit after being traded to the Cleveland Guardians. The Angels’ rebuilt pitching staff has spared them from having an even worse record; their starters have posted a 2.51 ERA in both August and the start of September, and their relievers have a sub-4 mark since the Midsummer Classic overall. Reid Detmers and Walbert Ureña look like the No. 1 and 2 of the future, and relievers Blake Weiman, Ben Joyce, and Ryan Watson have all posted sub-3 ERA’s while making at least 10 relief appearances each. Los Angeles dealt away José Soriano, Brent Suter, Ryan Zeferjahn, Chase Silseth, and Kirby Yates at the trade deadline, and while each of those pitchers besides Zeferjahn have performed well with their new teams, the Angels’ bullpen has somehow gotten better (although the sample size is, of course, relatively small).
Meanwhile, the Red Sox got hot at the start of the summer and haven’t cooled down since. They were just 37-48 on July 1, but they went 27-3 over a monthlong stretch and, after a short string of losses, have gone 16-10 in their last 26 games. Boston’s offense awoke in that span, as it had baseball’s eighth-worst offense before the All-Star break and have owned its second-best ever since. Although the Red Sox are currently without two of their best players, Willson Contreras and Cedanne Rafaela, both players are expected to return before the end of the season, and Roman Anthony should provide a boost in the meantime. Furthermore, Boston has gotten a major boost from two unexpected breakout stars, as Jahmai Jones has a 1.318 OPS in his first 47 plate appearances with the team and Mickey Gasper has a 1.379 mark in his last 72 plate appearances. The Red Sox pitched solidly in the first half of the season and have largely maintained their form in the second half, as Sonny Gray should receive some Cy Young Award votes and both Aroldis Chapman and Garrett Whitlock should get some attention for Reliever of the Year. Garrett Crochet, the runner-up in last season’s Cy Young Award voting, has missed basically the entire season with a shoulder injury, but he’s gearing up to pitch out of the bullpen in the playoffs. The Wild Card series looks likely to be a repeat of last fall’s, between Boston and New York, and if Crochet is healthy and the offense keeps clicking, the Red Sox have realistic dreams of a different result.
Johnson’s turnaround has been a major part of Los Angeles’ improved pitching. He owned a 7.63 ERA through the end of July, but he’s allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his last six starts, pitching to a 1.67 ERA across that span. However, there are elements of luck involved; his FIP was still 5.26 in those starts, and opponents slugged a much lower percentage than expected against his cutter and splitter. There are some aspects of his improvement that are sustainable, since he’s started to use his stronger cutter and almost completely eschewed his weak sinker, but any pitcher with a seventh-percentile xERA is probably still gettable. In fact, he ranks in the bottom quartile in every single Statcast category except for hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, and despite their hot form in the last few months, the Red Sox haven’t mashed the ball regardless. If anything, Johnson’s struggles to induce chases and or grounders, even with his cutter, should mitigate some of Boston’s biggest weaknesses. He’s also been more than a full run worse on the road, and the Red Sox’s offense has been significantly better at home. I expect a slight step back, though not a return to his pre-August form.
Bennett, meanwhile, has flown a little under the radar as a rookie, recording a 3.34 ERA in 17 starts. Although the lefty peaked in his first start after the All-Star break, when he pitched six scoreless innings to lower his ERA to 2.35, a 4.50 ERA in his last eight starts (giving up four or fewer earned runs in each start) isn’t terrible. Advanced numbers suggest that he has a significant edge in the starting pitching matchup over Johnson, as he sports an 82nd-percentile xERA and 93rd-percentile pitching run value. He’s displayed particularly excellent control, as his chase and walk rates both rank in the 98th percentile, and the Angels both chase frequently and draw very few free passes. Although he doesn’t strike out many batters, Los Angeles has been baseball’s second-most strikeout-prone team this season, and the Angels’ tendency to whiff should serve him well. The location splits aren’t in his favor, since he’s been slightly worse at home and Los Angeles has registered an OPS more than 100 points higher on the road, but his track record is strong enough that he should be okay regardless.
Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 9 (+100)
Even though the Angels’ offense is somewhat more dangerous on the road, I’m buying Bennett’s overall track record in his rookie season, and enough of Johnson’s improvement is tied to his newfound reliance on his stronger cutter that I’ll bank on Boston not completely blowing the game open.
Strong Lean: Wilyer Abreu 1+ Extra-Base Hits (+117)
Abreu is just two-for-17 in his last five games, but in the seven before that, he had an extra-base hit in five of his games. He’s recorded a .636 xSLG against right-handed cutters this season.
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