The 2026 NFL season will kick off with a Super Bowl rematch, as Drake Maye and the New England Patriots seek revenge on the Seattle Seahawks.
Looking at the odds, the defending champion Seahawks enter as three-point favorites and are -166 to win outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Patriots hold +140 odds to produce the upset, with the game total set at 44.5 points. For a full breakdown of the matchup on DraftKings Network, check out our Seahawks vs. Patriots prediction and pick.
This is a pivotal matchup for Drake Maye as he looks to build off his MVP runner-up season and get off on the right foot in his third year in the league. Below, I break down my top prop bet for the Wednesday night NFL opener.
Drake Maye Passing Yards Prop Bet vs. Patriots
Drake Maye Over 231.5 Passing Yards (-112)
The last time we saw Drake Maye on an NFL field, he was largely running for his life against this Seattle front seven. He was sacked six times, threw two interceptions, fumbled once, and Will Campbell was seemingly thrown back into his quarterback on just about every possession. Maye failed to ever look truly comfortable in the 29-13 loss.
However, the Patriots’ star still finished with 295 passing yards. Maye also averaged 258.5 passing yards per game throughout the regular season, throwing for over 231.5 passing yards in 12 of his 17 games played. He cleared this prop line in two of the four postseason games, as well.
This was all while New England had largely underwhelming pass-catching options. While Stefon Diggs managed to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards, no other wide receiver tallied more than 551 yards through the air on the season. It was a skill position group that did not cause much of a stir on scouting reports, and it is a credit to Maye for elevating the offense the way he did. The Patriots addressed this in the offseason by trading for three-time Pro Bowl wideout A.J. Brown, and handing Romeo Doubs a notable contract in free agency. Brown will have an immediate case for the most talented wide receiver the organization has had since Randy Moss, while Doubs could have more ceiling than he was able to show in the team-oriented Packers’ offensive system.
Plenty has been made about the dominance of this Seahawks defense. Seattle finished last year allowing the fewest points in the NFL and ranking sixth in yards allowed. Looking at their pass defense, they ranked 10th in passing yards allowed and seventh in passing touchdowns conceded. But Boye Mafe was lured away in the offseason to join the Bengals on a three-year, $60 million deal, while Tariq Woolen signed with the Eagles and Coby Bryant joined the Chicago Bears in free agency. There is still more structural integrity in the defensive unit than is sometimes the case when an organization has the level of success Seattle had, but these are key names they will now be without.
The Patriots did not invest significantly in their passing game not to use it. Expect a clear focus to get Brown on the same page as Maye early this season, and for this to start with tonight’s matchup. This is especially the case considering Seattle’s rushing defense is the more threatening area of their defense and had less roster turnover.
While the Seahawks will have some flashes in which they shine defensively, expect there to be enough room for production for Maye to clear the 231.5 passing yard prop line. He consistently passed this total last season at a high rate, including in the Super Bowl loss, and has much improved pass catchers surrounding him in tonight’s matchup. The market has corrected a bit too much and slipped to a level that Maye is capable of blowing past, and expect this to be put on display tonight.
