SMU at FSU (Monday – 7:30pm ET)
The bulk of a wild Week 1 of college football is in the rearview, but we still have a primetime Monday Night Football game to play between SMU and Florida State. This will be a heavily bet game in this time slot, and is looking like the Mustangs will go off as the public side.
As of Monday morning, SMU has received 72% of the money on the moneyline and 74% of the money ATS. You can track live updates of these betting splits on DraftKings Network. So why all the public love for the Mustangs?
Welp, FSU has stunk for a couple of years now, and after getting a glimpse of the Seminoles in Week 0, they might just stink again.
Let’s go back to 2023 — the Seminoles were a perfect 13-0 following the ACC Championship Game. However, with an injured QB, the committee left FSU out of the four-team College Football Playoff. The Noles went on the lose to Georgia in a bowl game by a score of 63-3, which has kind of set the tone for the program since.
Entering the 2026 season, Mike Norvell’s squad was 7-18 over its last 25 games, which dates back to that game against UGA. Over that span, FSU was 4-17 against the Power 4 and just 3-13 in the ACC. In short, the program has been a disaster.
There was nowhere to go but up from FSU’s 2-10 showing in 2024. The Noles went 5-7 in 2025, but I think the 2026 team could take a step back. They have some talent at the skill positions with a WR and RB room on par with previous seasons. However, the rest of the roster got worse at the remaining positions.
The offensive and defensive line are both lacking, and Ashton Daniels has not looked the part at QB. When the Noles took the field in Week 0 as 31-point favorites, they didn’t look the part at all. FSU scored just 34 points against New Mexico State, which ranks as one of the worst FBS teams. The Noles also gave up 17 points in a game that they never threatened to cover. In fact, the Aggies were genuinely in the game at times in the second half.
I’d likely be fading FSU this weekend no matter who they were playing, but I feel good about backing SMU as well. Kevin Jennings already has multiple years of experience as a starting QB under his belt, along with ACC title game and CFP experience. He’s a dual threat and fully healthy after battling injury last season.
Jennings will play behind and experienced offensive line with a talented group of pass catchers. The defense should be solid, and there are no real red flags with this SMU squad. Rhett Lashlee has had this team playing at a consistent high level in the ACC, riding a 22-2 streak in regular season conference games.
I expect that streak to extend on Monday night. While I understand the buy-low approach that would be considered a “sharp” or “professional” angle on the Florida State side, I just don’t see it with this team.
I gave out SMU -2.5 in the CFB betting group back on last Sunday, and have had this game in pocket for over a week now. I’d be comfortable laying the moneyline at anything -150 or better or laying points at -3 or shorter, which ever you prefer.
CFB Pick: SMU -2.5 (-115)
