For the Minnesota Twins and the Detroit Tigers, it’s now or never. With fewer than three weeks remaining in the MLB regular season, the Twins are 4.5 games behind the final AL Wild Card spot and the Tigers 7.5 games back, so both teams will need something of a miracle to get back in the playoff picture.
The teams will play a three-game series this week, and a split of any kind would likely be the dagger to either team’s hopes. Minnesota is in the far better position, since it still has three games remaining against each of the Cleveland Guardians and the Texas Rangers, two teams ahead of it in the Wild Card standings.
First pitch in the series opener is set for 3:10 p.m. ET. Joe Ryan is set to take the mound for the Twins, and Troy Melton will toe the rubber for the Tigers.
Let’s break down this must-win game with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers Best Bets
- Minnesota Twins Moneyline (+101): Minnesota was a solid 11-9 in Ryan’s 20 starts before the All-Star break, including a victory against Detroit on April 6. The Tigers have lost each of Melton’s last four, including a 15-2 result against the Twins last Tuesday.
- Joe Ryan 4+ Strikeouts (-103): Ryan hit this prop in 18 of his first 20 games of the season, and he sports a 79th-percentile strikeout rate overall. He’ll definitely be on a pitch limit (likely to be somewhere between 40 and 60 pitches), but this feels like good value regardless.
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers prediction, preview
It’s been a mixed bag for Minnesota as of late, as the Twins took two of three games from Detroit last week but lost four of six games against the Chicago White Sox to effectively fall out of contention for the division crown. However, Minnesota has been hitting; across the last 30 days, the Twins rank eighth in OPS and 15th in runs scored. Despite being without All-Star Byron Buxton for most of the last month, Minnesota has gotten continued contributions from catcher Ryan Jeffers, in the midst of a breakout season, as well as young outfielder Luke Keachsall, who’s slashed .306/.397/.465 since the All-Star break. For the Twins, pitching has been the issue; they rank sixth-to-last in ERA over the last 30 days, as their starters have posted an ERA north of 5 since the All-Star break. At least Minnesota’s bullpen has settled down, as trade deadline acquisitions Jeff Hoffman and A.J. Minter have helped stabilize the back end, and welcoming Ryan back after he missed more than a month with a glute injury should provide a boost to a reeling rotation.
The teams’ offensive fortunes as of late could hardly be more disparate. The Tigers rank dead last in OPS across the last 30 days, and while there’s an element of bad luck to their 21-26 record since the All-Star break (they’ve still outscored opponents by 26 runs in that span), their league-worst offense hasn’t helped matters. Even Dillon Dingler, who’d emerged as one of the league’s best offensive catchers earlier in the season, has slashed just .179/.233/.276 since the Midsummer Classic, and rookie Kevin McGonigle has hit a bit of a wall as well. Detroit also dealt away Jahmai Jones, who was one of the worst hitters in baseball with the Tigers through the end of July but has been tremendous in his first month with the Boston Red Sox. They haven’t made up for it with their pitching, posting the 10th-worst ERA in the last 30 days; unsurprisingly, trading away back-to-back AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal and 2025 All-Star Casey Mize hasn’t helped in the short term. At least Detroit has gotten some solid production from Melton and Keider Montero, and its bullpen has been decent, even if unspectacular.
Ryan was very solid prior to the All-Star break, pitching to a 2.85 ERA across 20 starts and earning his second consecutive All-Star nod. Then, he gave up at least four earned runs in each of his first three starts of the second half, seeing his ERA balloon to 3.65 and prompting his IL stint. He was sharp in his lone rehab stint last Tuesday, allowing just a solo homer in three innings of work with Triple-A St. Paul, so I’d expect him to be relatively strong this afternoon. His advanced numbers are strong, as he ranks in the 75th percentile in xERA and the 72nd in pitching run value. In particular, he’s excelled at striking out batters and avoiding walks, which could be an asset against the Tigers’ boom-or-bust lineup. Ryan also ranks above the league median in both chase rate and whiff rate, countering two of Detroit’s biggest strengths. However, the right-hander’s issue is avoiding hard hits; he ranks in the bottom quartile in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity, marred in part by his six-homer disaster against the Cleveland Guardians in his first start after the All-Star break, and for all of their struggles as of late, the Tigers do rank above the league median in both barrel rate. The right-hander has been slightly worse (but still solid) on the road, and Detroit has performed almost identically whether at home or on the road.
On Melton’s start days, it’s been no Skubal, no problem. The 25-year-old has made 17 starts this season after missing nearly two months with an elbow injury, and in that span, he’s pitched to a 2.20 ERA even after giving up seven runs (five earned) in just 5.1 innings in his most recent start. In fact, across a 10-start stretch between June 20 and August 15, Melton gave up two or fewer earned runs in each of his starts and pitched to a sub-1 ERA. His advanced numbers back up his strong basic profile, as he sports a 71st-percentile xERA and 79th-percentile pitching run value. Although Melton’s struggles to produce strikeouts could be a problem against a Twins team that rarely strikes out, the Tigers have had a top-10 fielding defense this season, and Melton ranks in the 46th percentile or higher in every other Statcast category. He could have some trouble keeping the ball down, as he ranks in just the 51st percentile in ground-ball rate and Minnesota has been excellent at getting it in the air, but with his sub-3 home ERA and the Twins’ slightly weaker offensive performance on the road, Melton should be able to get back on track with a solid outing.
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Minnesota Twins Moneyline (+101)
Melton should have a slight advantage in the starting pitching matchup, but it’s just hard for me to trust an offense that has produced the worst OPS over the last 30 days. This game feels pretty even, so I’m inclined to take the team with longer odds.
Strong Lean: Joe Ryan 4+ Strikeouts (-105)
Ryan struck out at least four batters in 18 of his 20 starts before the All-Star break, and he also had four strikeouts in three innings in his lone rehab start. It’s almost a guarantee that he’ll be on a pitch limit, but given that Detroit has struck out the 10th-most times over the last 30 days, he shouldn’t need many pitches to clear this low bar.
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