Boston returns home after a fiery four-game sweep in Baltimore. Their Blaze-Alexander-related fury took the form of just six runs allowed. The Angels, despite the recent sale and the buoyed spirits, have lost 11 of their last 13, and just suffered two shutouts in Pittsburgh over the weekend. Nonetheless, Brayan Bello introduces this matchup’s hinge point: this is his first “start” since June 4. He’s a piggyback starter, for those unfamiliar. The first inning has just ruined him. We’ll learn so much in the top of the first frame. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Boston Red Sox and the Los Angeles Angels.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Red Sox vs. Angels prediction, preview
Grayson Rodriguez, on the other mound, will be throwing Boston hittable fastballs all afternoon. His season WHIP is 1.52. His four-seamer accounts for 53.7% of pitches, generates only 16.8% whiffs, and has allowed a .514 SLG. It’s a juicer. Roman Anthony has a .626 xSLG against four-seamers in limited playing time this season. Admittedly, his 17.1% whiff rate on those pitches isn’t Roman-Empire-MVP type stuff, but his recent production should be what we’re focused on: 10-for-35, two homers, two doubles, 11 strikeouts, and four walks. He’s back as the fixture atop Boston’s lineup, but he hasn’t been the big hero of late (more on that later).
And, sure, while Bello’s relief numbers season-long have been impressive, the experiments not fully complete. He’s got a 53.6% groundball rate, which helps, but his paltry 16.2% strikeout rate will put a lot of work on the Red Sox defense, and they’re currently without their best defender (Rafaela). Bello’s surrendered eight runs across his last two relief appearances, which only total 7.1 innings in aggregate. Mike Trout returned from a hand injury scare on Saturday with two hits Sunday; his broader recent line remains 10-for-37 without a homer. He’s slowed down, as has Zach Neto, who’s logged eight hits and 14 strikeouts in 31 at-bats across the same time.
Boston also has gotten unbelievable production out if its supporting cast behind Anthony’s shine. Wilyer Abreu is 12-for-39 with six doubles, and, since returning from injury, Trevor Story is 12-for-29 with four doubles. Eli White had the weekend of his life, having accounted for eight RBIs across his last six games while covering for the injured Ceddanne Rafaela. Who knew? Jarren Duran can’t barrel a ball for his life, and 3-for-35 stretch keeps me from labeling the entire lineup hot. He sinks innings.
Angels vs. Red Sox pick, best bet
The late innings favor Boston on quality: its bullpen owns a 3.14 ERA and 1.17 WHIP against the Angels’ 4.35 and 1.39. Garrett Whitlock rested Saturday and Sunday, although Aroldis Chapman threw 19 pitches Sunday. Advantage, Angels: SP Walbert Urena handled all eight defensive innings Sunday, so every reliever is fresh for this one.
I expect Boston’s deeper supply of current hits to keep rolling. Production will keep coming out of nowhere, and it will outweigh my Bello trepidation. Once the relief matchups begin behind Bello, the game is usually Boston’s. G-Rod allowed four runs in six innings last Tuesday after a few hot starts, so he’s a bit of a wild card, too. Sox are too hot not to bet on them to keep rolling against a team so lowly as these Angels.
Best bet: Red Sox -1.5 (+119).
Projected score: Red Sox 6, Angels 3.
Best bet: Red Sox -1.5 (+120) vs. Angels
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