If you’re looking for my best bets cheat sheet for the entire Week 1 slate of college football you can find that by clicking here. Below are my plays for the Friday betting card in Week 1 of college football.
Toledo at Michigan State (Friday – 8pm ET)
After another poor season, Michigan State made a move to bring in Pat Fitzgerald at head coach. Fitzgerald is extremely familiar with the conference after nearly two decades at Northwestern, but has been away from coaching for a couple of seasons. Generally, when a program changes hands, the new coach brings some of the talent from the last stop. That’s not the case this time around, and it should prevent Sparty from making a big jump in the first season under Fitzgerald.
But I do believe this team will be well coached and capitalize when it gets chances to win, and an opening Friday night game against Toledo is one of those opportunities. Fitzgerald prioritized added experienced players, and while few come from power conferences, they have a lot of snaps.
The offensive line improved as 2026 progressed for the Spartans, and the one area of stability the roster does seem to have is at QB. Alessio Milivojevic was thrusted into action as a freshman and developed nicely. He gives the offense potential in his first full season as the starter.
Toledo brings in a new head coach from the FCS level. Mike Jacobs coached at Mercer, and the general perception of this hire seems to be positive. Just two starters return for Toledo, so it’ll rely on a lot of transfers, including from Mercer. I don’t know much about Jacobs, but looking at his track record last season, I’m struggling to see why he earned this promotion.
Mercer seemed constantly unprepared in 2025. It lost it’s opener to Presbyterian as a 22.5-point favorite. You’d think Mercer would be locked in the following week as a double digit favorite once again in a matchup against Wofford. Mercer squeaked out a one-point victory. Mercer got hammered when it stepped up in talent, losing 62-27 to Auburn and 47-0 to South Dakota.
Is Jacobs really going to have a brand new Toledo roster ready for a trip to Michigan State in Week 1? I think this is a spot Sparty flexes and gets Fitzgerald off to a convincing 1-0 start, before the road becomes far more difficult.
CFB Pick: Michigan State -9.5 (-110)
Fresno State at USC (Friday – 9pm ET)
We got a look at the Trojans in Week 0, and while they were in constant control against San Jose State, the win wasn’t as dominant as you’d like to see. With a spread floating between 37 and 40, USC managed just 42 points. The defense that many hoped would be fixed by Gary Patterson was still shaky, giving up 26 points to the Spartans.
If USC doesn’t up its game heading into Week 1, Fresno State could be able to give it a game. The stadium was embarrassingly empty for the season opener, and the Los Angeles crowd may opt for other plans on a Friday night again. USC plays on a quick turnaround here, and the Bulldogs have some Week 0 tape to study entering this matchup.
The Trojans should score points once again, but Fresno projects as one of the top defenses in the PAC-12, and can likely provide more resistance than San Jose State. The Bulldogs return 13 starters from a solid 9-4 team in 2025, and are a trendy pick to surprise in the PAC-12 this season.
Fresno slowed the pace in 2025, with a strong run game that was effective and helped the defense as well. Many of those key pieces are back, with an experienced RB room and veteran offensive line. I’m not calling for the upset here, but Fresno’s style of play, along with just enough talent, should keep them at least within three touchdowns here. This one was sitting 23.5 prior to Week 0 and is starting to get bet down. I’ll grab the points with the Bulldogs while it’s still on the right side of 21.
CFB Pick: Fresno State +22.5 (-108)
For more analysis check out our College Football homepage on DraftKings Network.
