Securing a bye past the Wild Card series hasn’t proven to be all that valuable since the MLB playoff format expanded to 12 teams in 2022, as just four of the eight pennant-winning teams in the expanded format had a top-two seed, but any team on the bubble would surely rather not have to play the best-of-three opening round.
As a result, despite effectively securing the NL West already, the Los Angeles Dodgers will likely still keep the pedal to the metal, as they currently hold just a 0.5-game lead over the Atlanta Braves for the league’s second seed and an automatic spot in the NLDS. They’ll open September with a critical nine-game homestand, beginning with a three-game series against the St. Louis Cardinals.
Tonight’s series opener is set to begin at 10:10 p.m. ET. Michael McGreevy will take the mound for St. Louis, and Eric Lauer will start for Los Angeles.
Let’s break down this rematch of the 2021 NL Wild Card Game with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers Best Bets
- Los Angeles Dodgers 1st Run of Game (+105): Given that McGreevy, who’s posted a near-6 ERA since the All-Star break will start, Lauer might just have to hold out for one inning before the Dodgers pounce on McGreevy in the bottom half of the inning.
- Will Smith (LAD) 2+ Total Bases (+135): This also feels like good value for one of Los Angeles’ most reliable hitters over the last couple of seasons. McGreevy likes to throw sinkers to righties, and Smith has a .611 xSLG against righty sinkers in his 52 games.
St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers prediction, preview
The Cardinals remain at the fringes of the playoff picture, but with an 18-25 record since the All-Star break, they’re more out than in at this point, trailing the final Wild Card spot by five games. St. Louis wasn’t able to sustain the offense that it enjoyed in the first half of the season, as it’s posted the fifth-lowest OPS since the All-Star break. Jordan Walker has come back to earth a little bit, posting a .267/.316/.418 slash line since the Midsummer Classic, and the Cardinals will also be without slumping rookie JJ Wetherholt (.201/.313/.305) after he landed on the Injured List with wrist tendinitis. Furthermore, their bullpen has collapsed, posting an ERA north of 5 since the All-Star break. All-Star closer Riley O’Brien underwent one complete collapse, as did George Soriano, and Luis Gastelum has had his fair share of bad outings as well. Gordon Graceffo is the only pitcher on the team with at least five innings pitched and a sub-3 ERA, which isn’t exactly a recipe for success.
However, St. Louis has arguably found the Dodgers at the right time. Los Angeles has been pretty mediocre for the last two months, as it’s just one game over .500 since the start of July, and it’s had its fair share of disappointing results, including a sweep to Atlanta last week. The Dodgers just haven’t had the offense, ranking only 15th in OPS since the Midsummer Classic, although they’ve just welcomed back both Dalton Rushing and Will Smith, so their production behind the plate shouldn’t be a complete black hole anymore. Los Angeles could also rebound if Mookie Betts, who has a .796 OPS across his last 20 games, keeps up his solid form. Both the Dodgers’ rotation and bullpen have taken slight steps back to start the second half of the season, but Tarik Skubal has been as good as advertised (a 3.00 ERA in five starts), Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow are both back from IL and pitching well, and All-Star Justin Wrobleski (a likely bullpen piece in the playoffs) was just activated in addition to Rushing and Smith. Los Angeles’ remade bullpen has posted a respectable 3.40 mark this month after putting up an ERA north of 5 in July, and it should get better in the playoffs once Wrobleski, Kris Bubic, and Roki Sasaki presumably settle into new roles.
Nominally, McGreevy is the Cardinals’ ace, but given that he’s pitched to a 3.86 ERA in 26 starts and is coming off of a five-inning, seven-run disaster, that label is tenuous, and his 5.98 ERA since the All-Star break is pretty concerning overall. Advanced stats suggest that that’s been his level all season; he ranks in just the sixth percentile in expected ERA and the fourth percentile in expected batting average. Furthermore, McGreevy has bottom-octile whiff and strikeout rates, and the Dodgers have had some of the best bat-to-ball skills in baseball, still striking out the ninth-fewest times even through their second-half funk. That’ll also put a lot of pressure on St. Louis’ fielders, who, Wetherholt aside, haven’t been very good this season. McGreevy has compounded his mistakes by ranking in the bottom quartile in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity as well, and it should come as no surprise that Los Angeles ranks in the league’s top 11 in all three power stats. To be fair, McGreevy’s ability to induce grounders should help mitigate one of the Dodgers’ biggest strengths, and the location splits are in his favor, but Los Angeles should still be able to get to him.
Lauer is only still in the Dodgers’ rotation because Shohei Ohtani isn’t yet ready to return to the mound, but that speaks more to Los Angeles’ pitching depth than to Lauer’s weakness. In 10 starts and two bulk relief appearances with the Dodgers, Lauer has pitched to a solid 4.00 ERA, giving up three or fewer earned runs in all but two of his starts. Advanced numbers suggest that he has an edge in the starting pitching matchup over McGreevy, though only slightly, as he sports a 21st-percentile xERA. He’s struggled to generate whiffs and strikeouts to an even greater extent than McGreevy, ranking in the seventh percentile or lower in both stats, but Los Angeles has better fielders. Lauer has also struggled mightily to keep the ball down, as he pairs a bottom-ventile ground-ball rate with a sixth-percentile barrel rate, though that shouldn’t be as much of a problem against the grounder-happy, soft-hitting Cardinals. He’s recorded a 2.37 ERA in five starts this season at Dodger Stadium, which should help him effectively counter a St. Louis offense that has been much better on the road.
St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers 1st Run of Game (+105)
Given how much McGreevy has struggled, especially as of late, this is pretty good value. Of course, the Cardinals will hit first in every inning, and Lauer isn’t exactly an ace, but it would hardly be a surprise if Los Angeles scored in the first inning.
Strong Lean: Will Smith (LAD) 2+ Total Bases (+135)
Smith will likely don the gear in his first game back, and he was in plenty good form in his 10 games before his injury, recording a .941 OPS in that span. He’s also slugged .563 in his five rehab appearances.
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