We’ve officially passed the end of August and are into September, meaning the MLB’s postseason race is coming down to the wire. The Miami Marlins are four games shy of an NL Wild Card berth and clawing to get back into the mix; tonight, they take on the Kansas City Royals for the second game of this interleague series. First pitch is set for 7:40 .m. ET at Kauffman Stadium.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for today’s Marlins vs. Royals game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Marlins vs. Royals prediction, preview
The Marlins were one of the hottest teams in the MLB prior to the All-Star break, but ever since, they’ve been near the bottom of the sport in winning percentage. They’ve gone 17-24 over the season’s second half and are now 69-69 on the year with a +12 run differential – four games out of the NL Wild Card. The Royals’ season virtually ended long ago, and they’re just 62-76 on the campaign with a -83 run differential. With that said, they’ve actually posted the fifth-best record in baseball since the break at 24-17 and are 8-2 over their last 10 contests.
Miami starts RHP Tyler Phillips (3-6), who has bounced between a bullpen role and that of a starter. He brings a 3.59 ERA and 1.37 WHIP into this matchup, producing 86 strikeouts over 105.1 IP. His K% and BB% aren’t great at 18.9% and 9.9%, but he does have an above-average grade in chase and whiff rate as well as ground-ball rate.
For Kansas City, it’s RHP Randy Dobnak (2-2) on the mound tonight. His ERA is 1.92 with a 1.37 WHIP over his 51.2 IP, so run suppression has been a strength over his 10 games. He’s struck out just 34 batters for a low 15.4% K% and a 9.5% BB%; however, a 95th-percentile barrel rate and 93rd-percentile ground-ball rate both stand out at elite levels.
Over the season’s second half, the Marlins’ offense has far underperformed compared to the first half. Since the break, they’re 26th in runs scored (158) with a .678 OPS that ranks 24th. The club’s ISO has never been particularly high this year, but a .128 mark is lower than the season-long mark. They’re also 25th in wRC+. On the full campaign, the Marlins slash .254/.330/.406 with a .735 OPS against right-handed pitching.
Looking at the Royals, their own offense has improved over the second half. They’re 14th in total runs scored (179) with a .729 OPS that sits 11th in the sport, also logging a .159 ISO while improving the plate process – they have a low 19.8% K% over this span. Kansas City is 11th in wRC+ since the break as well. On the full year, the club slashes .247/.317/.404 with a .721 OPS.
Marlins vs. Royals pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Royals as a -120 Moneyline favorite at home this evening, with the Marlins in play as a +100 underdog on the road. The total is set at 9.5 combined runs.
In my opinion, this total feels a little bit high. Neither of the starting arms are stars by any means, or really anywhere close to it, but they’ve pitched well on the full season and as of late. Dobnak’s ERA was 2.81 over his 25.2 IP last month and he doesn’t allow many homers; Phillips’ 3.86 ERA over his 21.0 IP in August was really solid given that he allowed one or fewer earned runs in three of his five starts.
Yes, the Royals’ bullpen remains a problem and the Marlins’ hasn’t been good in the second half, either. They’re producing staff ERAs of 4.49 and 4.78 over this span and have been particularly vulnerable to the long ball with the fourth and fifth-worst HR/9 marks of any club. Assuming the starters don’t collapse early, though, there’s still room for the under on 9.5 runs to cash, especially with Miami’s bats inconsistent at best at the moment.
