It has been a lifeless era of football for Garrett Wilson and the New York Jets. Heading into the second season of the Aaron Glenn era and Wilson’s fifth in the league, Geno Smith is now taking the reins at quarterback. Wilson remains one of the premier talents on the roster and in the league, as he is still scratching the surface of what he can be at the NFL level with this newfound stability set to benefit him in a major way.
Looking at his fantasy football outlook, Wilson is currently being drafted with an average draft position of roughly 37 overall or as WR18, with some variance depending on league format and scoring. But given the changes across New York’s roster, is this undervaluing his talent level, and could there be a pathway to Wilson delivering first-round-caliber production this year?
Garrett Wilson Fantasy Football Outlook with the Jets:
The Jets drafted Garrett Wilson with the 10th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. He recorded 1,000+ receiving yards in each of his first three seasons in the league with 14 total touchdowns across this stretch. Injuries limited him to just seven games last year as a knee sprain eventually landed him on IR. Across these opportunities, the Ohio State product tallied 36 receptions for 395 yards and four touchdowns.
From a fantasy football perspective, Wilson is posting career averages of 14.0 fantasy points per game based on DraftKings scoring. He averaged 13.3 fantasy points per game in his rookie season, 13.0 in 2023, a career-high 15.6 fantasy points per game the following year, and 14.2 per game last season before the injury ended it prematurely.
There were some clear growing pains for the Jets last season in Glenn’s first year as head coach. New York limped to a 3-14 record, and ranked 29th in points, 29th in yards, dead last in passing yards, and 31st in passing touchdowns.
But there is fair reason for optimism that there will be notable improvement this season. Frank Reich has taken over as offensive coordinator and has led some dynamic offenses across his time as both a head coach and OC. Reich has spoken about his desire to return Wilson to more of a role on the outside after he has played in the slot at a greater rate in recent seasons. This provides more big play potential and should scale up his level of opportunity in red zone situations, although he will surely be moved around the field.
The addition of Geno Smith is especially noteworthy for Wilson’s outlook. Smith has his flaws, but it is fairly certain that he will provide a higher floor of production compared to players like Zach Wilson, Mike White, Trevor Siemian, Justin Fields, Tyrod Taylor, and Tim Boyle, whom Wilson has experience catching passes from each.
If Smith has made one thing clear throughout his 12-year NFL career, he is not afraid to take risks and let it fly. The two-time Pro Bowler led the NFL in interceptions with the Raiders last season and has thrown for 3,000+ yards in each of the past four years. His first tenure in New York did not go as desired, but there has been some real growth and maturity in the eight years since he left.
Even as the Jets’ offense has been a disaster in recent years, Wilson has continued to produce as one of the better fantasy football receivers in the league. He ranked 29th in fantasy points per game among wide receivers as a rookie based on DraftKings scoring, 35th in his second year, 18th in 2024, and 16th last season. With a higher floor of competency surrounding him on the roster, Wilson will be one of the biggest beneficiaries. Adonai Mitchell and Isaiah Williams are other names to note as the other primary pass-catchers, but Wilson will be the unquestioned top threat in the passing game.
It sounds a bit strange to say, given what we have seen from this Jets’ organization over the past several years, but there is a higher floor of expectation for Wilson and this offense compared to some other options in his draft range.
Looking at the DraftKings Network fantasy football wide receiver rankings, Dan Johnson lists Wilson as an ‘Extreme Target’ and the 15th-ranked player at the position. He states as follows:
“Wilson opened his career with 83, 95, and 101 catches, clearing 1,000 yards every season. A knee injury limited him to 36-395-4 across seven games last year. He enters age 26 with 315 catches and 3,644 yards already banked. That résumé belongs to a target sovereign. The knee recovery interrupts an otherwise elite volume projection.”
But to push even further, Wilson trails Chris Olave as the 14th-ranked wide receiver, who has even more legitimate injury concerns, and there should be some level of skepticism if Tyler Shough can maintain the level he flashed last year. Jaylen Waddle is ranked 13th, but will be suiting up in the Broncos’ system for the first time this year. DeVonta Smith is ranked 12th, but will see more defensive coverage than he is accustomed to, and the Eagles’ offense has gone through a noteworthy facelift this offseason with new offensive coordinator Sean Mannion in charge this year. Even some of the true top wide receiver targets like Puka Nacua and Malik Nabers face more pressing questions than the Jets star.
Have Garrett Wilson circled ahead of your fantasy drafts and expect him to outperform his fantasy draft slot in a major way. The Jets will be sure to make it a priority to get their top offensive weapon involved at a high rate, and Wilson checks the box of having both a high floor and ceiling. At the minimum, the former Offensive Rookie of the Year can be penciled in for double-digit fantasy points on a weekly basis. But with the clearest offensive vision and better quarterback play than he has had for most of his career, there is a clear pathway to the Jets star making the leap into the true elite wide receiver category that his talent level has flashed to be. Expect Wilson to be at the heart of New York’s offensive effort and to play his way into the top-10 wide receivers in fantasy football, and don’t be shocked if this time next year he is mocked as a late first round pick across the board.
