Two Bantamweight prospects, Lawrence Lui and Hector Santiago, are facing off at today’s UFC Fight Night in Shanghai, China. Lui enters this fight with an 8-1 record with four knockouts, while Santiago is 6-1 with five knockouts. This fight is taking place on the UFC Fight Night Prelims, which begin at 3:00 a.m. ET on Paramount+.
Check out my best bet below for Lawrence Lui vs. Hector Santiago at Saturday’s UFC Fight Night.
Lawrence Lui to Win by Decision (+185)
Since suffering his first MMA loss in May 2022, Lui has won five straight fights. Lui trains at City Kickboxing in Auckland, New Zealand, which has produced UFC Champions like Carlos Ulberg and Israel Adesanya. Lui beat Van Y Nghiem in the Road to UFC Finals in August 2025. Following that performance, Lui made his debut for the promotion at UFC 325 in January, where he beat Sulangrangbo by split decision. Santiago has won two straight fights since losing his first fight in December 2025.
In this fight, Lui is a -360 favorite with Santiago being a +285 underdog on DraftKings Sportsbook. This bout is +120 to go the distance and -160 to end early. The over/under is set at 2.5 rounds, with the under at -130 and the over at +100.
Lui has the physical advantage in this fight: he is taller by two inches (5’7″ vs. 5’5″) and has a four-inch reach advantage (72″ vs. 68″). Including his time on the Road to UFC, Lui has displayed his versatile skill set, averaging 3.72 significant strikes per minute and 5.30 takedowns per 15 minutes. If Lui uses all areas of his game, he should be able to get the best of Santiago. I’m taking Lui to win by decision at +185 since three of his previous four victories have come on the judges’ scorecards.
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