Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday’s massive slate: Matt Olson, Pete Alonso and Jac Caglianone.
Let’s break them down.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson | +233 | Tomoyuki Sugano has surrendered 59 home runs since the start of last season — the third-most in MLB. This should not come as a shock for a pitcher with a first percentile opponent barrel rate (13.0%). Olson has the second-most long balls in baseball in 2026 (37). I think he adds to that total this evening. |
| Pete Alonso | +225 | By Baseball Savant’s Park Factors, Sutter Health has been the easiest place to hit a home run in 2026, and on Friday, Pete Alonso finally gets to take advantage. Also, there might not be a hitter on the planet at the moment swinging a hotter bat than Pete. In the month of August, Alonso is slashing .374/.430/.703 with nine home runs and a 217 wRC+. |
| Jac Caglianone | +332 | Caglianone hit his 23rd home run of the season off a position player on Thursday. Let’s get him a real long ball tonight. The man with 98th percentile bat speed (77.3) and a 98th percentile hard hit rate (55.0%) will go up against Tanner Bibee, who is surrendering 2.02 long balls per nine to LHBs in 2026. |
In-depth analysis below.
Top MLB Home Run Props Today
Matt Olson 1+ Home Run (+233)
Tomoyuki Sugano gave up five earned runs in three innings in his last start, yet somehow did not allow a home run. That’s notable! Not only does Sugano have a long track record of giving up long balls — the 59 he’s surrendered since the start of last season are the third-most in MLB — but he’s been especially burdened by home runs in his recent outings. To wit, in his past eight starts, Sugano’s conceded a jaw-dropping 2.55 opponent home runs per nine, with a majority of those coming off the bat of a left-handed hitter. None of this should come as a shock for a pitcher with a first percentile opponent barrel rate (13.0%), yet the sheer volume is staggering at this level. Matt Olson has the second-most long balls in baseball in 2026 (37). I think he adds to that total this evening.
Pete Alonso 1+ Home Run (+225)
While Jacob Lopez has been pitching very well as of late, there’s nothing he can do about the Mickey Mouse ball park his organization currently calls home. By Baseball Savant’s Park Factors, Sutter Health has been the easiest place to hit a home run in 2026, and on Friday, Pete Alonso finally gets to take advantage. To add fuel to the fire, there might not be a hitter on the planet at the moment swinging a hotter bat than Pete. In the month of August, Alonso is slashing .374/.430/.703 with nine home runs and a 217 wRC+. He’s been unstoppable, and his 99th percentile average exit velocity (94.2) and 98th percentile expected wOBA (.393) for the season as a whole suggest this hot streak isn’t a fluke, either.
Jac Caglianone 1+ Home Run (+332)
Caglianone hit a 409-foot bomb for his 23rd home run of the season on Thursday, just like I predicted he would in yesterday’s article. Did I say it would come off a Myles Straw 39.6 mph “fastball” in the ninth inning of a blowout? Not exactly, but they all count the same on a winning ticket, right? Let’s get Caglianone a real long ball tonight. The man with 98th percentile bat speed (77.3) and a 98th percentile hard hit rate (55.0%) will go up against Tanner Bibee and the Guardians. Bibee isn’t as bad as his win-loss record would have you believe, but if there has been a major red flag for the RHP, it’s been giving up homers to LHBs. In fact, Bibee’s surrendering 2.02 per nine within the split. Woof.
