At 68-66, the Marlins still have a shot at securing the National League’s final wild card spot. It’s a bit more tricky for the Nationals (63-73), who have fallen out of the race in recent weeks. Miami will send one of its top arms to the mound tonight in Eury Perez. Can Washington play spoiler this evening at home?
The Marlins are favorites (-147) over the Nationals; the over/under is set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between Miami and Washington on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Marlins vs. Nationals pick, best bet today
- Marlins -1.5 (+110): Kent has looked abysmal during his brief time in the majors. Even if the rookie holds his own tonight, Perez has been nothing short of dominant recently. The opposite is true for Washington’s offense, slumping without James Wood. The Marlins are poised to earn a much-needed win on Friday night.
Marlins vs. Nationals prediction, preview
As previously mentioned, it’ll be Perez toeing the slab this evening in DC. What looked like a disappointing campaign has turned into a dominant one for the right-hander. Over his last ten appearances, he’s recorded a 1.79 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 64 strikeouts (9.55 K/9). The 23-year-old’s recent success is backed up by impressive peripherals. Per Savant, he ranks within the 75th percentile or better in xBA (.210), fastball velocity (98.1 MPH), whiff rate (28.6%) and strikeout rate (26.6%). The Dominican has allowed just one earned run combined over his previous 18.0 innings of work. That includes a five-inning, one-run gem last weekend vs. Washington.
Speaking of the Nationals, this is a team that has relied heavily on its offense this season. With that being said, this group isn’t nearly as effective as it was back in June. Big bats such as Curtis Mead and Luis Garcia Jr. were dealt away at the trade deadline. All-Star James Wood (oblique) remains sidelined on the injured list. What’s left is standout CJ Abrams and a collection of decent, but unspectacular, hitters. Washington has scored 34 runs over its last ten contests, fifth-worst in the majors during that stretch. It’s difficult to envision this group snapping out of its slump tonight against one of the sport’s most lethal starting pitchers.
Jackson Kent will get the nod for the Nats in this one. There isn’t much data on the 23-year-old. So far, not so good; he’s posted an 8.03 ERA and 2.11 WHIP over 12.1 innings of work. It’s a small sample size, but not very encouraging. The southpaw has allowed at least three earned runs in each of his three career appearances. That includes his most recent outing, an August 23rd meeting with Miami. It’s not as if there’s much reprieve for Kent if he happens to stumble. Washington’s bullpen is on the hook for a National League-worst 4.87 ERA.
This game likely comes down to what version of Miami’s offense happens to show up tonight. The Marlins aren’t world beaters at the plate, but they do put bat on ball. Kent’s biggest weakness so far has been giving up base hits (10.9 H/9) and base on balls (8.0 BB/9). The Fish rank seventh in batting average (.249), sixth in OBP (.326) and 13th in walks per game (3.43). Washington’s starting pitcher has a fairly standard repertoire, throwing a fastball on 41% of his pitches so far. That offering tops out at around 93.0 MPH on average. Against four-seamers at that speed or slower, Marlins batters have recorded a .346 on-base percentage and .408 slugging percentage.
Best Bet: Marlins -1.5 (+110)
Even when their offense was lighting it up, the Nationals weren’t the safest bet. That’s especially true as of late, with the team’s bats going ice cold. To make matters worse, Miami hands the ball to one of baseball’s hottest starting pitchers in Perez. All signs are pointing towards a victory for the visitors tonight.
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