The Atlanta Braves just came off of their toughest six-game stretch of the season, with back-to-back home series against the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers, the two teams with whom they are battling for two byes in the crowded National League playoff field. They made out pretty well, taking one of three against Milwaukee and sweeping the Dodgers.
Atlanta will get a bit of a respite this weekend with a home series against the Colorado Rockies, who once again dwell in the NL West’s cellar.
Tonight’s series opener is set to begin at 7:15 p.m. ET. Tomoyuki Sugano will get the call for the Rockies, and Grant Holmes will start for the Braves.
Let’s break down this cross-country clash with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves Best Bets
- Over 9 (-108): Although Atlanta’s offense is cold, there’s nothing to warm it up like a weekend series against Colorado, which has posted the league’s worst ERA in each of the last five seasons.
- Drake Baldwin 1+ Home Runs (+320): In series against the league’s two best teams, Baldwin posted an OPS near 1.000, hitting a homer off of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and now he’ll get to face Sugano, a far inferior Japanese right-hander.
Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves prediction, preview
At this point, Colorado has two priorities: evaluate the development from some of its young prospects, and hope not to lose 100 games for the fourth consecutive season. At a 38.8% winning percentage, the Rockies are currently on pace to finish 63-99, which would be their best record since 2022, but they’ve fallen below that pace since the All-Star break. For the season, there’s a lot to be encouraged by; Colorado has had the fourth-best offense for the season as a whole, tying for the fifth-best mark in August. Hunter Goodman ranks third in the NL in home runs, and TJ Rumfeld, Cole Carrigg, and, most recently, Zac Veen, have impressed as rookies. The Rockies’ pitching has still been an issue, as their rotation has had an ERA near 7 since the All-Star break, but their bullpen actually posted a sub-4 mark in July, which is pretty remarkable given Denver’s summer heat and altitude. Jordan Romano and Brennan Bernardino both have sub-3 ERA’s, and former starter Antonio Senzatela reinvented himself as a reliable closer before being traded to the Milwaukee Brewers. Some of Colorado’s free agency signings, including Michael Lorenzen (who was waived) and Jose Quintana (who’s been out for most of the season with an elbow injury), have flopped, but Sugano has been decent.
Meanwhile, after a poor stretch right before the All-Star break, Atlanta has picked it back up ever since, going 24-15 across the second half of the season. Its bats have gone a little cold this month, as it ranks just 21st in OPS, but given that it’s faced Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jacob Misiorowski in the last week, it can be forgiven for that. Ronald Acuña Jr. has struggled through a third consecutive injury-prone season, but Matt Olson has continued to rake and Drake Baldwin has emerged as the next superstar catcher. To supplement their offense, the Braves’ starters have posted a sub-3 ERA in August, as Chris Sale produced a vintage performance last night by out-dueling Yamamoto and Martín Pérez has emerged out of nowhere to put up a 3.12 ERA. Additionally, all four of Atlanta’s primary relievers with at least 40 innings pitched have recorded a sub-3 ERA, and trade deadline acquisition Brent Suter has come in and managed a 1.50 mark in five appearances. Acuña will have to start hitting for the Braves to truly contend for a championship, but their pitching can take them a long way.
Sugano has a 12-7 record, ranking ninth in the NL in wins, which is pretty remarkable given the Rockies’ terrible record. All in all, he’s pitched to a 4.96 ERA in his 23 starts, although he’s trending in the wrong direction, giving up at least five in each of his last two. Advanced numbers certainly aren’t a fan of him, though; he sports a first-percentile expected ERA and expected batting average to go along with a fourth-percentile pitching run value. His lone notable strength is his exceptional control; he owns a 93rd-percentile walk rate, and that could further stymie Atlanta, which has drawn the third-fewest walks this season. However, because he owns bottom-ventile whiff and strikeout rates, he consistently puts pressure on fielders who have been among the worst in the league this season, especially since the Braves sport above-average contact skills. Furthermore, Sugano has a first-percentile barrel rate, a fourth-percentile average exit velocity, and an 11th-percentile hard-hit rate, and Atlanta ranks in the league’s top 10 in all three stats. I’d potentially still trust Sugano not to completely blow up — some pitchers are just good game managers, and Sugano clearly has experienced more success than he should based on his talent level — but given that the Braves have been significantly better at home, a below-average outing (say, five innings and three earned runs) is a reasonable expectation.
This month, Holmes has been inconsistent, as he’s escaped without damage in three of his four starts and given up six runs in the other. Overall, he’s had a pretty good season, recording a 3.64 ERA in 25 starts and giving up more than three earned runs just twice. Like Sugano, advanced stats suggest that he’s gotten a bit fortunate; his xERA sits in just the 18th percentile and his xBA in the 27th. However, he’s been above-average at generating both chases and whiffs, exacerbating two of Colorado’s biggest weaknesses. While those are his only strengths, the Rockies have struggled to take advantage of his weaknesses: he ranks near the bottom quartile in both strikeout rate and walk rate, but Colorado draws relatively few free passes while striking out frequently, and although he ranks in just the first percentile in average exit velocity, the Rockies’ hits have been the second-slowest. Additionally, Atlanta has had among the strongest fielding teams, producing positive Defensive Runs Saved at every position except catcher, so he’s more likely to maintain his low BAbip than Sugano is. Holmes might need that luck tonight, since his ERA is nearly two runs higher at home and Colorado’s offense has still been league-average on the road.
Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves pick, best bet
Best Bet: Over 9 (-108)
The Rockies’ offense on the road is still good enough to take advantage of Holmes’ mediocrity at home, and I expect the Braves’ offense to produce well against Sugano, who isn’t exactly his countryman Yamamoto.
Strong Lean: Drake Baldwin 1+ Home Runs (+320)
Baldwin sent Yamamoto’s first pitch into the bleachers last night, and he has a 94th-percentile xSLG this season to go along with the fourth-most home runs of any catcher. He has a .706 slugging percentage against the righty splitters Sugano likes to throw.
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