Are the Mariners finally back?
Seattle won again on Tuesday, bringing its record to 64-69. In the wide-open AL West, the team is just 2.5 games back of the division lead. Now, the M’s will attempt to pull off a series sweep against the Phillies (73-60). What should we expect from these two clubs this afternoon at T-Mobile Park?
The Phillies are favorites (-128) over the Mariners; the over/under is set at seven runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Wednesday’s showdown between Philadelphia and Seattle on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Phillies vs. Mariners pick, best bet today
- Phillies vs. Mariners under seven runs (-116): Both Luzardo and Woo are legitimate talents, equally capable of spinning a gem. Seattle can’t hit lefties, while the Phillies don’t do much damage on the road. All the ingredients are there for a pitching duel this afternoon.
Phillies vs. Mariners prediction, preview
Jesus Luzardo gets the nod for Philadelphia, making his 27th start of the season. It’s been a terrific campaign for the All-Star, one of the National League’s best pitchers. Through 156.0 innings, he’s delivered a 3.23 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 194 strikeouts (11.2 K/9). The left-hander has given up two earned runs or less in 12 of his previous 13 outings. A look at Luzardo’s peripherals suggests that he’s one of baseball’s elite arms. The 28-year-old sits within the 89th percentile or better in xERA (2.87), whiff rate (31.7%), strikeout rate (30.1%), hard-hit rate (32.2%) and ground ball rate (49.9%).
Seattle’s offense seems to have finally awoken, led by none other than Cal Raleigh. 2025’s AL MVP runner-up has been nothing short of horrendous at the plate this season. However, the catcher has clubbed six home runs over his previous nine contests. That includes four during the first two games of this series vs. Philadelphia. As a unit, the Mariners have scored the seventh-most runs in the league (50) over their previous ten contests. With that being said, today’s matchup could prove difficult for the M’s. Seattle has a .642 OPS against left-handed pitching, second-worst in the majors this season.
As for the home team, it’ll be Bryan Woo toeing the slab following a brief injury scare. When healthy, the right-hander remains one of the sport’s better hurlers. Still, he’s been plagued by an inability to consistently pitch well on the road. Fortunately for Seattle’s hurler, Wednesday’s game takes place at spacious T-Mobile Park. Over ten appearances this season at home, Woo owns a minuscule 1.96 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. The former All-Star still possesses elite command (1.9 BB/9), usually forcing opponents to string together multiple hits if they want to bring home baserunners.
The Phillies aren’t a bad offense by any means, especially since acquiring Luis Arraez at the trade deadline. In fact, they’ve scored the third-most runs in baseball during the month of August (125). Still, this group does have one notable weakness: an unwillingness, or inability to, work the count. Philadelphia is averaging just 3.20 walks per game, seventh-worst in the big leagues. As previously mentioned, Woo doesn’t hand out many free passes to begin with. As an added caveat, the Phillies are averaging the fourth-fewest runs per game on the road (4.02).
Best Bet: Phillies vs. Mariners under seven runs (-116)
Given Seattle’s struggles against southpaws, there’s no reason to think Luzardo can’t dominate in this one. On the other side, Woo is a completely different pitcher inside the friendly confines of T-Mobile Park. It’s the exact opposite for Philadelphia, a lineup that struggles away from home. Keeping that in mind, the smart money is on the under this afternoon.
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