This weekend, the top golfers on the PGA TOUR are ready for the final tournament in the FedExCup Playoffs. With a $40 million purse up for grabs and a $10 million top prize, it’s an important and exciting tournament for the best golfers in the world. The 30-player field will take on East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta in what will be the second-to-last TOUR Championship to use this stroke-play format. With another exciting week of action on the links ahead, let’s look at the many available options and pinpoint a few of my best bets for Round 1 of the TOUR Championship from DraftKings Sportsbook.
The 30 players in the field will play in pairs for the third straight week, and all 15 pairings will start from the first tee. Since the field is so small, the first groups won’t get underway until 11:00 a.m. ET, with groups starting every 12 minutes until the final group begins at 2:00 p.m. ET – featuring the top two players in the FedExCup Standings, Scottie Scheffler and Matt Fitzpatrick. Six of the 30 players are playing in this event for the first time, while Tommy Fleetwood is looking to win his second TOUR Championship in a row. Other previous FedExCup champions in the field include Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland.
Even though there are thunderstorms in the forecast on Thursday, the field is so small that it’s hard to see much of an advantage to going early or late. The wind is expected to be light and variable throughout the day, so players should be able to adjust and attack the flagsticks. Last year, the field played this week’s venue more than two strokes under par per round, so low scores are definitely available.
In this post, we’ll focus on my three best bets for Round 1 of the TOUR Championship on Thursday, August 27.
Patrick Cantlay Under 67.5 – Round 1 O/U (-102)
Cantlay comes back to East Lake Golf Club with good momentum after moving into the top 30 by finishing solo second and three strokes back of winner Wyndham Clark at the BMW Championship. He led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, and ranked second in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green.
Like this week’s course, last week’s course was a par-70, and Cantlay finished under this prop line in each of the first three rounds before carding a 68 on Sunday. He has three straight top-15 finishes and ranks second in this elite field in Strokes Gained: Approach and third in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over the last three months.
Cantlay also has an excellent history at East Lake with a win in 2021, a fifth-place finish in 2023 and a T2 last year behind Fleetwood. He was under this prop line in each of the first three rounds last year, starting with an impressive 64 out of the gate. Even if he’s not quite that hot at the start of this year’s event, he should be able to get to at least -3, which makes this prop feel like great value at just about even money.
Cantlay will tee off at 12:06 p.m. ET playing alongside rookie Kristoffer Reitan.
Tommy Fleetwood Over 4.5 Birdies or Better – Round 1 (-108)
Just a few groups after Cantlay, Fleetwood will tee off at 1:12 p.m. ET with Ludvig Aberg in the group alongside him. Fleetwood will be hoping to run it back and pick up his second PGA TOUR win where he finally had his breakthrough performance last year.
As I highlighted in my fantasy golf pivots, Fleetwood was on an incredible run until a tough weekend last week. He had reeled off seven straight top-15 finishes before last week’s T47. He is in a good spot to bounce back at East Lake, though, and I like his chances to get at least five par-breakers in his opening round. Even last week when he struggled, he went over this prop line in one of his four rounds.
Last year at this week’s venue, Fleetwood piled up 27 birdies in four rounds (6.8 per round). He went over this prop line in every round with seven birdies in Round 1, eight birdies in Round 2, seven birdies in Round 3, and five birdies in Round 4. If he can reset after last weekend’s blip and be back in top form this week, he has a great chance to hit the over on this prop. He may make quick work of this prop if he can start like he did last year, opening with three straight birdies out of the gate.
Collin Morikawa (+118) over Sam Burns – 2 Ball (3 Way) – Round 1
At 1:24, Collin Morikawa and Sam Burns tee off in the fourth-to-last pairing. Morikawa finished seventh in the FedExCup standings just ahead of Burns, who was eighth. Both players had excellent seasons, but Morikawa comes in with great course history and slightly better form, so I love the value of getting him at plus-money in this three-way matchup for Round 1.
I highlighted Morikawa in my cash game plays for this week, and after last week’s T-4 at the BMW Championship, he seems to be finding his game just in time for a big finish to the playoffs. Last week, Morikawa’s putter was on point, and if he can keep rolling it so well this week, the rest of his game should put him in a great spot to contend this week. He has posted four top-20 finishes in his last five tournaments, including a T-3 at the Travelers in addition to last week’s T-4.
Morikawa also has played well at this week’s venue in the past, posting a runner-up finish in 2024 and three top-six finishes in his first five career appearances here before dipping to a T-19 last season.
On the other side of this prop, Burns has also been very hot but did tail off a bit last week, finishing T-12. He was T-12 at the Travelers, behind Morikawa, but finished in the top three at the US Open, The Open Championship, and the FedEx St. Jude Championship. While he has played the TOUR Championship each of the last five seasons, he has yet to crack the top five. Last year was his best finish with a T-7, which did put him ahead of Morikawa for that tournament.
While both players have the ability to go low and be near the top of the leaderboard, Morikawa’s recent surge while Burns faded a bit makes me lean in his direction for this round matchup, especially with the course history also in his favor.
