Rivals are on a collision course tonight in the Bronx. The Astros (65-66) find themselves in the hunt for another AL West title, looking to make their return to the postseason. Houston will face a major test tonight against an old foe, the Yankees (74-56). New York, just 3.5 games back of the Rays for the American League’s best record, needs every win it can get going forward. Which of these contenders will emerge victorious on Tuesday night?
The Yankees are favorites (-137) over the Astros; the over/under is set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s showdown between Houston and New York on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Astros vs. Yankees pick, best bet today
- Astros vs. Yankees over 8.5 runs (-117): Pecko hasn’t proven much in the majors, and a road trip vs. New York isn’t the most promising environment. However, Warren has been downright terrible for most of the summer. Keeping that in mind, expect both offenses to do some damage tonight.
Astros vs. Yankees prediction, preview
The ‘Stros have generated most of their wins via offense (more on that later). Finding quality pitching has proven to be far more difficult. It’ll be Ethan Pecko toeing the slab tonight, making just his second career start. During his major league debut last week, the 24-year-old allowed two earned runs over 3.2 innings. Over 17 appearances this season at Triple-A Sugar Land, the righty delivered a 4.94 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. As a caveat, offensive numbers tend to get inflated in the hitter-happy Pacific Coast League.
For most young hurlers, a trip to the Bronx would be intimidating. However, this current iteration of the Yankees isn’t striking fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers. Since July 1st, the Pinstripes have scored the second-fewest runs in baseball (164). With that being said, there are some decent bats on this offense. All-Stars Ben Rice and Cody Bellinger, along with recent acquisition Luis Garcia Jr., provide some thump in the middle of the order. As a unit, New York has clubbed an American League-best 179 home runs. Unsurprisingly, the Bronx Bombers tend to perform better when hitting at home. Other than a four-seam fastball, Pecko most frequently utilizes his cutter and slider. Against those two pitches, Yankees batters own a .250/.328/.431 slash line.
As for the home team, Will Warren will take the hill on Tuesday. It’s been an up and down campaign for the 27-year-old. Through 122.0 innings of work (24 starts), he’s recorded a 4.43 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 122 strikeouts (9.0 K/9). Granted, the right-hander has been a difficult player to back in recent weeks. Over his last eight games, Warren is on the hook for a 6.34 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. A look under the hood doesn’t inspire much confidence either. He ranks below the 25th percentile in most advanced metrics, including xERA (4.68), xBA (.266), average exit velocity (90.8 MPH) and hard-hit rate (43.7%).
If there’s a silver lining for Warren, he’s done well in this spot before. The veteran tossed six innings of two-run ball when these two teams met on April 26th. Still, New York’s starter hasn’t been the same since getting off to a red-hot start. The same can’t be said of his opponents tonight. Houston’s offense is legit, led by MVP front-runner Yordan Alvarez (185 wRC+). Still, help can be found scattered across this roster. As a unit, this Astros lineup is 12th in runs scored (596), fifth in homers (173) and tenth in OPS (.727). That knack for hitting one into the seats could come in handy, especially with the short porch in right field. Warren has put up a mediocre 1.4 HR/9 ratio this season.
Best Bet: Astros vs. Yankees over 8.5 runs (-117)
It’s difficult to get too excited about the unproven Pecko tonight, even when considering New York’s offensive struggles. The same is true of Warren, who has been among the sport’s worst pitchers over the past two months. A date with Alvarez and company doesn’t seem like an ideal get right spot. With two pitchers you can’t trust on the mound, this has all the makings of a high-scoring affair.
More MLB Content & Betting Picks
- MLB Best Bets Today: Top NRFI props for Tuesday 8/25/26
- Best MLB Parlays Today: Top Picks for Tuesday, August 25
Tail all of today’s MLB action in the DKN Betting Group here.
