In the words of Yogi Berra, it’s like déjà vu all over again. For the second time in a week, Cam Schlittler and the Yankees will square-off with the Blue Jays. The contest gets going a 7:05 p.m. ET in the Bronx.
Can the Cy Young frontrunner come out on top this time around? Let’s preview this divisional battle and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Blue Jays vs. Yankees prediction, preview
It’s at least a little funny that the undermanned Blue Jays beat Cam Schlittler and the Yankees with a bullpen game last Saturday, considering that was also the script of Game 4 of the ALDS last season. Can they do it a third time? I’d say the odds are stacked against it. While Toronto is riding high at the moment, having won 15 of its last 23, this is still not a lineup that inspires a lot of confidence. The Jays come into Friday ranking dead-last in baseball in average exit velocity (87.5), hard hit rate (33.8%) and expected wOBA (.295). Even during this hot stretch where the club has been winning, Toronto ranks 26th in ISO (.126). It’s just not a deep offensive group, and it’s even shallower with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. not eligible to come off the concussion IL until tomorrow.
So, how have the Jays been able to pull themselves back into the AL Wild Card picture? It’s been all about pitching. Since July 27, Toronto sits second in MLB in team ERA (3.10) — ironically trailing only the Yankees (2.58). Dylan Cease, Jose Soriano and Shane Bieber have all been solid as of late, but it’s really been the Jays’ bullpen that’s been leading the charge. Louis Varland, Tyler Rogers and Rule 5 pick Spencer Miles have formed a terrifying back-end trio, while Mason Fluharty and Braydon Fisher both sit top-five in baseball in appearances. This evening, Fluharty will make his fourth “start” of 2026, as John Schneider will look to neutralize the LHBs at the top of New York’s order. After that? It’ll seemingly be a combination of Simeon Woods Richardson and Spencer Arrighetti, who will be making his Toronto debut. Arrighetti was actually named American League Pitcher of the Month back in May with the Astros, yet injuries and a massive 13.0% walk rate have derailed his campaign.
Aaron Boone will not need to think as hard tonight. He’ll be riding Schlittler as long as he can. The RHP admittedly did not have his best stuff his last time out, yet Schlittler still allowed only a single run over 5.1 innings. For 2026 as a whole, Schlittler ranks third among all qualified starters in ERA (2.19), fourth in xERA (2.93) and fourth in FIP (2.59). Still, somehow, the Yankees have managed to lose Schlittler’s past four outings. He simply has not been getting enough run support, an issue that has plagued New York since Aaron Judge (rib) went down with an injury at the end of May. Since June 1, the Yankees sit dead-last in batting average (.219) and 29th in wRC+ (87). You have to do better for your ace.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-139)
These two teams rank first and third, respectively, in team ERA since August 1. Conversely, since the All-Star break, the Yankees sit dead-last in batting average (.208), while the Jays sit 29th in ISO (.117). These are pretty telling trends that point in one direction. Add in the presence of Cam Schlittler, and you’ve got an easy case for the under.
Strong Lean: Cam Schlittler 7+ Strikeouts (-113)
Schlittler’s 31.4% strikeout rate is the fourth-highest qualified mark in MLB. He’s racked up at least seven strikeouts in nine of his last 12 starts, and all three of his meetings with the Blue Jays in 2026.
