Besides in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, no division has ever sent four teams to the playoffs, but in the fifth season of the expanded 12-team MLB Playoffs format, that could finally happen in 2026. The Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees, and Boston Red Sox are virtually assured playoff spots, and the Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles are both within 1.5 games of the final playoff spot.
New York could put a further dent in the Orioles’ chances tonight at 6:35 p.m. ET, when it goes for a sweep. After tonight, it’ll be a critical weekend of divisional play for both teams, as the Yankees will face the Blue Jays and Baltimore will face Tampa Bay.
For the series finale, Gerrit Cole will start for New York, and the Orioles will turn to Kyle Bradish.
Let’s break down this potentially playoff-determining contest with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles Best Bets
- Baltimore Orioles Moneyline (-102): Although the Yankees won the first two games of the series, they haven’t swept an opponent since before the All-Star break, and Baltimore hasn’t been swept since May. Bradish is an underrated pitcher.
- Pete Alonso 1+ RBI’s (+172): Alonso has been on a tear, posting a 1.578 OPS across his last 10 games, and he’s driven in at least one run in four of his last five. It’s hard to bet against him while he’s seeing the ball so well.
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles prediction, preview
An early-season Rays run left the Yankees largely in cruise control for much of the season, as they’ve been playing consistent winning baseball but not making up ground on Tampa Bay. Since the All-Star break, New York has played a lot of tight games, going 17-13 overall. Its offense has collapsed, as it’s posted the second-worst OPS since the Midsummer Classic. Both Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger remain out, and while rookie sensation George Lombard Jr. has helped, trade deadline acquisitions Luis García Jr. and Heliot Ramos have both underwhelmed. However, the Yankees have stayed competitive because of their pitching; since the Midsummer Classic, they’ve posted an ERA 0.57 runs lower than any other team, as Cole, Max Fried, Carlos Rodón, and AL Cy Young Award candidate Cam Schlittler have continued to mow down batters with ease. Additionally, Brent Headrick and Paul Blackburn have proven to be two of baseball’s best relievers, and although their two other 2025 trade deadline acquisitions (Camilo Doval and Jake Bird) were flops, David Bednar has produced well in a closing role.
Meanwhile, Baltimore’s rise back into the playoff picture has been a recent development. The Orioles were 39-48 at the end of June, but they’ve hovered around .500 and the rest of the American League has floundered. Despite trading catcher Adley Rutschmann to Boston at the trade deadline, Baltimore has maintained its average offense, and free agency signing Pete Alonso has slashed a ridiculous .500/.578/1.000 over his last 10 games. Jackson Holliday, too, has shown flashes, although he hasn’t been able to maintain them. Plus, the Orioles’ pitching staff has been in the league’s middle third all season, with all four of their starters with at least 20 starts posting between a 100 and 120 ERA+. While trading Tyler Wells, arguably their best reliever, will hurt, his replacement, Alex Hoppe, has yet to give up a run. Baltimore dealt Rutschmann without eyes on the postseason, but a surprise appearance would help its core develop experience, and it would likely have an easy opponent in the AL West champion.
Cole, the 2023 Cy Young Award winner, missed the first month and a half of the season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he’s been stellar, posting a 3.22 ERA in 15 starts, including a 2.57 mark since the start of July. He’s allowed two or fewer earned runs on 10 separate occasions. Per Statcast, he sports a 77th-percentile expected ERA and 75th-percentile pitching run value, and he’s been particularly good at both striking batters out and avoiding walks, which could be an asset against the three-true-outcomes Orioles. However, he hasn’t been very good at incentivizing either chases or whiffs, and while Baltimore doesn’t chase frequently, it does have some swing-and-miss issues. Additionally, Cole ranks in the bottom decile in both hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, and the Orioles lead the league in both stats. Given New York’s above-average defense, especially now that Lombard is manning shortstop, Cole’s production should be sustainable, but Baltimore’s hot offense at home and its particular ability to take advantage of Cole’s weaknesses could present a challenge.
Bradish, too, has put up ace-level production over the last several months. Across his last 10 starts, dating back to June 17, he’s pitched to a 2.87 ERA, giving up more than two earned runs just thrice and more than three earned runs once to drop his season-long mark to 3.65 across 24 starts. He sports a 47th-percentile expected ERA, and overall, he doesn’t have notable weaknesses or strengths, sitting in the middle quintile in xERA, xBA, fastball velocity, chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. Bradish does have a 79th-percentile ground-ball rate, largely thanks to his reliance on sinkers and sliders; given that one of the Yankees’ strengths is finding the launch angle sweet spot, that could help him quiet their bats, especially since he also has a 68th-percentile average exit velocity. Location splits are also in Bradish’s favor; the 29-year-old has been somewhat better at home and New York worse on the road.
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles pick, best bet
Best Bet: Baltimore Orioles Moneyline (-102)
This is as much of a pure toss-up as it gets, as the Yankees are -105 on the Moneyline, but Cole’s propensity to give up hard hits and the Orioles’ hot offense (especially Alonso) worry me. Bradish is better than Shane Baz and Chris Bassitt, who started the previous two games.
Strong Lean: Pete Alonso 1+ RBI (+172)
Alonso has driven in at least one run in four of his past five games, and he has 11 in his last 10 games overall. Cole likes to throw four-seamers to righties, and Alonso has a .590 xSLG and a .330 xBA against left-handed four-seamers.
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