NFL futures betting offers several ways to find value before the regular season begins, from division winners and conference champions to season win totals and player props. Betting splits provide another layer of information by showing where both the betting public and larger wagers are landing, helping identify which futures are drawing the most interest.
Below are the best AFC South bets for the 2026 NFL season, complete with current odds, DraftKings Sportsbook betting splits, why each market is attracting action and my analysis on every wager.
AFC South Best Bets and Betting Splits
| Bet | Odds | Bets % | Handle % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texans to Win the AFC South | +110 | 47% | 31% |
| Jaguars to Win the AFC South | +245 | 40% | 53% |
| Nico Collins Over 6.5 Receiving TDs | -105 | 97% | 84% |
| Carnell Tate to win OROY | +550 | 14% | 10% |
| Jonathan Taylor to Lead NFL in Rushing | +600 | N/A | N/A |
Best AFC South Division Bet
Texans to Win the AFC South (+110)
| Betting Splits | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Bets | 47% |
| Handle | 31% |
Why bettors are backing the Texans
Despite the Jaguars winning the division last season, the Texans are once again favorites to win the AFC South. Houston had arguably the best defense in the NFL last season and should be elite again this season. The Texans added a veteran presence in the running back room, pairing David Montgomery with Woody Marks. The team’s success will likely come down to C.J. Stroud’s level of play, but the floor is so high because of the defense.
Analysis
The Texans seem like the safe bet to win the AFC South. Finishing in second place last season gets them a slightly easier strength of schedule than Jacksonville. They also dealt with so many injuries offensively last season and still won 12 games because of that remarkable defense. The defense should be just as good this season, so if the receivers can stay healthy and David Montgomery provides a steadier backfield presence, this team should be better than last season.
Jaguars to Win the AFC South (+245)
| Betting Splits | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Bets | 40% |
| Handle | 53% |
Why bettors are backing the Jaguars
The NFL world has been waiting for the Jaguars to take that next step ever since they drafted Trevor Lawrence in 2021. Lawrence was one of the highest-rated prospects in the history of the NFL Draft. While he has been a good quarterback for Jacksonville, he has yet to hit the heights many hoped for. In five seasons, he has won just one playoff game and only made the postseason twice.
That being said, Jacksonville seemed to find an identity in Year One under Liam Coen. They went 13-4 and won the AFC South, but couldn’t get it done in the postseason against Josh Allen. The Texans will be fierce competition, so it should be a tight race for the divisional crown this season.
Analysis
The Jaguars made the bold move of letting Travis Etienne go this offseason. Etienne had been a consistently great presence in the backfield for the Jaguars the past few seasons. However, they are ready to hand the keys over to Bhayshul Tuten. The Jaguars had such a great run game last season, which made life much easier for Lawrence. It will be interesting to see how big of an impact the loss of Etienne has on the offense. That question mark is one of the reasons I lean more towards Houston winning the division this season.
Best NFL Season Rushing Leader Bet
Jonathan Taylor to Lead the NFL in Rushing (+600)
| Betting Splits | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Bets | N/A |
| Handle | N/A |
Why bettors are backing Taylor
Jonathan Taylor is the 17th-most bet-on player by handle to lead the league in rushing at DraftKings Sportsbook. That is despite being the co-favorite to be the rushing leader, alongside Derrick Henry. Taylor finished third in rushing last season, just behind Henry and James Cook. The Colts had an excellent rushing offense last season, and after getting a big contract this offseason, it should be another great year for Taylor. However, the betting public seems to be favoring running backs with more value than Taylor presents at +600.
Analysis
Jonathan Taylor has been one of the best backs in the NFL his entire career. He led the league in rushing in 2021-22 and has finished in the top four each of the past two seasons. With Daniel Jones returning at quarterback, this should be the same run-heavy offense as last season. Last season, Indianapolis led the NFL in EPA/rush. If he stays healthy, Taylor has a great chance to lead the league in rushing.
Best NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Bets
Carnell Tate to win OROY (+550)
| Betting Splits | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Bets | 14% |
| Handle | 10% |
Why bettors are backing Tate
Carnell Tate was the No. 4 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft to the Tennessee Titans. Tate is expected to have a big rookie season, with the third-best odds to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, behind only Jeremiyah Love and Fernando Mendoza. Tate was an incredible player at Ohio State and bettors are hoping that will translate to the NFL right away.
Analysis
The Titans were completely lacking in the wide receiver department during Cam Ward’s rookie year. A healthy Calvin Ridley and the rookie Carnell Tate should make life much easier for Ward. Brian Daboll coming as offensive coordinator should allow Ward and this offense to take a big step forward this season. While the Titans might not be a great team, Tate could still put together a solid rookie season as this franchise looks to move forward in the right direction.
Best AFC South Player Prop Bets
Nico Collins Over 6.5 Receiving Touchdowns (-105)
| Betting Splits | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Bets | 97% |
| Handle | 84% |
Why bettors are backing the over
Nico Collins is one of the best receivers in the NFL when he is on the field. Injuries have held Collins back in the past, but he was able to play 15 games last season. That is a return the Texans will surely take going forward. Collins has been a 1,000-yard receiver each of the past three seasons. That is despite never playing more than 15 games in a season. Collins has led the Texans in receiving in all three of C.J. Stroud’s NFL seasons and will continue to be his go-to guy. That is why bettors are confident in Collins getting over this number.
Analysis
Nico Collins has never been a high-level touchdown scorer. His career-high in receiving touchdowns in a season is eight, which came during the 2023-24 season. The following season he caught seven touchdowns, and he grabbed six of them last season. So, this number has slowly dwindled over the past three seasons. The Texans are not an explosive offense that will be scoring at a high clip. However, Collins has cleared this number in two of the past three seasons despite never playing more than 15 games. If he is healthy, he will have a great chance to clear this mark this season.
AFC South Bets FAQ
What are the best AFC South bets for the 2026 NFL season?
The featured AFC South bets include: Texans to Win the AFC South, Jaguars to win the AFC South, Nico Collins over 6.5 Receiving TDs and Carnell Tate to win OROY.
What are NFL betting splits?
Betting splits show the percentage of tickets (bets) and money (handle) placed on each side of a wager. Comparing the two can provide insight into whether a market is being driven primarily by public bettors or larger wagers.
How should betting splits be used?
Betting splits should be one factor among many when evaluating a wager. They can help identify popular sides or where larger amounts of money are being wagered, but they should be combined with matchup analysis, injuries and market movement before placing a bet.
When do NFL futures bets close?
Most NFL futures markets remain open until the affected team’s first regular-season game, although odds and availability can change throughout the preseason.
