Two teams vying for a postseason spot will meet for an interleague clash on Saturday. The Padres (66-57) are on a roll, winning six straight games coming into today. That includes a 7-5 victory over the Guardians (59-64) on Friday night. Now, Cleveland will attempt to bounce back at home. Will San Diego make it seven in a row tonight?
The Guardians are favorites (-116) over the Padres; the over/under is set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Saturday’s showdown between San Diego and Cleveland on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Padres vs. Guardians pick, best bet today
- Padres ML (+108): At a certain point, ride the hot hand. The Padres wield baseball’s best bullpen, so a relief-heavy approach should prove difficult for Cleveland’s feeble lineup. San Diego at plus money against a sub-.500 opponent? It’s almost impossible to fade the underdogs in this spot.
Padres vs. Guardians prediction, preview
It’s an unorthodox starter on the mound today, with Wandy Peralta getting the nod. The southpaw has been effective this season (3.39), so it makes sense to use him against a lefty-heavy Cleveland lineup. With that being said, expect to see plenty of Randy Vasquez on Saturday. Whether its in the second or third inning, the right-hander will make an appearance at some point on Saturday. Through 106.0 innings of work, he’s notched a 4.16 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 66 strikeouts (5.6 K/9). Vasquez has been solid as of late, allowing two earned runs over his last three outings (1.15 ERA). If he happens to get into any trouble, San Diego can turn to baseball’s best bullpen. After receiving two days off, superstar closer Mason Miller could get a four or five-out save if called upon.
It’s not as if the Guardians pack much of a punch at the plate. They rank 28th in runs (488), 27th in batting average (.233) and 28th in OPS (.683). This group has shown modest improvement at the plate in August, but not enough to quell concerns going forward. Just four lineup regulars (min. 200 plate appearances) have a wRC+ above 100. Infield prospect Angel Genao ( BA) has helped, but one player alone isn’t enough to vault this lineup into above-average status. As a unit, Cleveland has the fifth-worst OPS against right-handed pitching (.692).
The Guards will hand the ball to Joey Cantillo, making his 26th start of the season. All things considered, the 26-year-old has been a solid piece in this rotation. During 119.2 innings pitched, he’s recorded a 3.91 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 132 strikeouts (9.9 K/9). While the whiffs are nice, erratic command (4.2 BB/9) can make the southpaw a difficult name to trust. In addition, Cantillo rarely throws more than five innings. That places added pressure on a good, not great, Cleveland bullpen.
On paper, San Diego’s season-long statistics aren’t much better than the Guardians. That doesn’t factor in the recent progress made by this group. Since July 1st, the Padres rank fifth in runs scored (199), ninth in home runs (48) and third in OPS (.779). During that time, big bats such as Fernando Tatis Jr. (.888 OPS), Jackson Merrill (.928 OPS) and Manny Machado (.789 OPS) have finally looked like their old selves. The Friars love working the count, earning the league’s 11th-most walks per game (3.41). Against a pitcher such as Cantillo, that disciplined approach should pay major dividends.
Best Bet: Padres ML (+108)
San Diego has been the much better club in recent weeks, looking the part of a National League dark horse. Cleveland might be better than its lackluster record, but poor hitting overshadows a quality pitching staff. Cantillo’s tendency to hand out free passes is cause for concern against a red-hot Padres lineup. At plus money, the visitors make plenty of sense on Saturday.
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