NL East foes are set to clash tonight in Queens. The Nationals (60-63), despite their sub-.500 record, still have an outside shot at reaching the postseason. It’s a different story for the disappointing Mets (53-69), stuck at the bottom of this top-heavy division. Can New York pick up a win at home tonight over Washington?
The Mets are favorites (-113) over the Nationals; the over/under is set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between Washington and New York on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Nationals vs. Mets pick, best bet today
- Nationals vs. Mets over 8.5 runs (-115): The Nats, even without James Wood, are an above-average big league offense. They shouldn’t have too much difficulty getting to Stock on Friday. In comparison, the Mets perform much better at the plate against southpaws. Washington’s terrible bullpen raises the possibility of some late-game scoring this evening in New York.
Nationals vs. Mets prediction, preview
Pitching has been what’s held Washington back all season. Tonight’s starter, Andrew Alvarez, has been one of the team’s better arms this season. Through 69.1 innings of work, the southpaw has notched a 3.76 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 65 strikeouts (8.4 K/9). He comes into this one with some momentum, allowing two earned runs or less in each of his last three outings. Despite most of his peripherals being mediocre, Alvarez ranks within the 85th percentile or better in barrel rate (4.6%) and ground ball rate (51.0%).
We’ve seen Alvarez hold his own against the Red Sox, Rays and Phillies in the past. In comparison, the Mets don’t seem like much of a challenge. They rank 22nd in runs scored (522), 26th in batting average (.235) and 26th in OPS (.694). To be fair, the Amazins have looked better at the plate during the month of August. Still, this lineup isn’t very intimidating, especially with Juan Soto (calf) sidelined. It’s worth noting that New York has the 12th-best OPS against left-handed pitching (.709). In addition, the Mets have scored the sixth-most runs in baseball (53) over their last ten games. Making Alvarez work could pay dividends later tonight as well. Washington’s bullpen is on the hook for a 4.90 ERA, second-worst in the National League.
With all that being said, New York has question marks of its own on the bump. Robert Stock will take the hill tonight, making his third appearance of the season. So far, not so good for the right-hander; he’s sporting a dismal 10.13 ERA and 2.13 WHIP. It’s a small sample size, to be fair. Regardless, there’s enough of a track record on the 36-year-old to express some skepticism tonight. Through 59 career big league appearances, Stock has a lackluster 5.40 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, and 5.3 BB/9 ratio.
On paper, this feels like a perfect spot for the Nationals to put up a crooked number. After all, this is baseball’s highest scoring offense. It’s worth noting that many of the players responsible for those season-long numbers won’t be suiting up tonight. All-Star James Wood (oblique) is currently on the injured list. Luis Garcia Jr. (135 wRC+) and Curtis Mead (134 wRC+) have been traded to New York and Boston, respectively. Fortunately, superstar shortstop CJ Abrams (143 wRC+) is still mashing. Washington has tallied 55 runs over its previous ten games, fifth-most in the majors during that stretch.
Best Bet: Nationals vs. Mets over 8.5 runs (-115)
Washington, even in its current depleted state, can put up runs in a hurry. As for the Mets, there’s reason to believe this group can perform well at home against a left-hander. Given the uncertainty around Alvarez and Stock, 8.5 runs feels a tad low. Back the over during this divisional clash at Citi Field.
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