An intriguing interleague matchup is on tap tonight in Clevleand. The Padres (65-57) have saved their season, surging into sole possession of the National League’s second wild card spot. Still, San Diego can’t afford to get complacent; several other squads aren’t very far behind. On the other side, the Guardians (59-63) are hoping to claw their way back into first place in the AL Central. To boot, they have a shot at a wild card berth in the wide-open American League. Which club will come out on top during Friday’s interleague matchup?
The Guardians are favorites (-128) over the Padres; the over/under is set at 7.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between San Diego and Cleveland on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Padres vs. Guardians pick, best bet today
- Padres ML (+119): San Diego has been far more potent at the plate compared to Cleveland in recent weeks. In comparison, the difference on the mound between King and Williams is minimal at best. As plus money underdogs, the Padres are worth a closer look tonight.
Padres vs. Guardians prediction, preview
Despite some midseason acquisitions, Michael King is the most talented pitcher on this San Diego pitching staff. The right-hander comes into Friday with a 3.37 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 120 strikeouts (7.9 K/9) over 136.1 innings. A look at the veteran’s peripherals suggests that he’s gotten somewhat fortunate this season. However, he still ranks within the 88th percentile in hard-hit rate (32.6%). That knack for suppressing quality contact gives King a decent floor from game to game. Over 11 starts on the road, the eighth-year pro has posted a 3.56 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.
King should be licking his chops heading into tonight’s matchup. The Guardians have been nothing short of abysmal at the plate. They rank 28th in runs scored (483), 27th in batting average (.232) and 30th in slugging percentage (.368) this season. It’s worth noting that rookie Angel Genao (.811 OPS) has looked comfortable over his first eight big league games. However, trade deadline acquisitions Jo Adell (.687 OPS) and Nathaniel Lowe (.631 OPS) have struggled. Cleveland enters today’s contest with a .690 OPS against right-handed pitching, fourth-worst in the majors.
Fortunately for the Guardians, Gavin Williams will take the mound this evening. It’s been a stellar season for the righty, among the American League’s top arms. Through 144.2 innings of work (24 starts), he’s recorded a 3.55 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 185 strikeouts (11.5 K/9). Over his last four outings, the 26-year-old has allowed four earned runs (1.42 ERA). If there’s one area where Williams struggles, it’s giving up hard hits. He sits inside the 11th percentile or worse in average exit velocity (90.0 MPH), barrel rate (11.3%) and hard-hit rate (47.6%).
The Padres aren’t a great lineup; in fact, most casual fans would probably consider them among the league’s worst. However, that ignores the major improvements made by this group over the past two months. Since July 1st, San Diego ranks fifth in runs (192), eighth in homers (46) and fourth in OPS (.772). To boot, the Friars average far more runs per game on the road (4.63) than at home (3.95). This group strikes out at the ninth-lowest rate in the majors as well. For a pitcher such as Williams that relies heavily on whiffs, that could spell trouble.
Best Bet: Padres ML (+119)
Cleveland has the lower odds here primarily due to Williams’ presence on the mound. It’s San Diego that wields the superior lineup and bullpen. With that being said, the offensive difference between these two clubs is difficult to ignore. A sputtering Guardians lineup doesn’t inspire much confidence, while the Padres are swinging it with the best of them this summer. At plus money, the visitors offer far more value tonight.
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