Aces are set to face off this evening at Great American Ball Park. For the Marlins (62-60), it’ll be workhorse Sandy Alcantara on the bump. He’ll be opposed by Chase Burns, the newest sensation on the mound for the Reds (58-62). As far as mid-August pitching matchups go, it doesn’t get much better than this. Which hurler has what it takes to lead their club to victory on Friday?
The Reds are favorites (-112) over the Marlins; the over/under is set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between Miami and Cincinnati on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Marlins vs. Reds pick, best bet today
- Marlins ML (+104): The Marlins aren’t likely to dominate in this one, but there are enough scrappy hitters to make Burns work tonight. In comparison, Alcantara has little issue pitching deep into games and comes into Friday on a hot streak. Given how bad Cincinnati’s offense has been this season, the Fish offer more value at plus money.
Marlins vs. Reds prediction, preview
As previously mentioned, Miami will hand the ball to Alcantara tonight. It’s been another terrific campaign from the former NL Cy Young winner. The ace has tossed a league-high 163.2 innings, a rarity in today’s era of heavily limited starting pitchers. To boot, he comes into this one with a 3.52 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 128 strikeouts (7.0 K/9). He comes into today’s contest on a 20-inning scoreless streak as well. It is worth noting that the Dominican has been less effective on the road (4.32 ERA). Still, he has a stellar 3.28 ERA over his previous seven starts away from home.
Alcantara excels when it comes to command, posting a minuscule 2.3 BB/9 ratio. That’s not ideal for the Reds, Friday’s opponents. One of the only things this offense does well is averaging 3.62 walks per game, seventh-most in baseball. Cincinnati ranks 26th in runs scored (496) and 30th in batting average (.227). Other than Elly De La Cruz ( wRC+) and Sal Stewart ( wRC+), there aren’t many impact hitters in this lineup. Alcantara also excels at limiting the long ball (0.9 HR/9), which clashes with a Reds lineup hitting the fifth-most home runs in baseball (158).
For as good as Alcantara has been this season, Chase Burns has been even better. The All-Star enters this evening with a 2.61 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 143 strikeouts (10.4 K/9) over 124.0 innings of work (22 starts). He’s been especially good when pitching at Great American Ball Park (2.20 ERA). With that being said, Burns hasn’t been quite as sharp in recent weeks. Over his last five appearances, the fireballer is on the hook for a 3.99 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. He has a BB/9 rate of 3.99 during that stretch, so it’ll be imperative for Miami to work the count tonight.
The Marlins aren’t a juggernaut at the plate, ranking 18th in runs scored (535). There isn’t much here in terms of power, but an assembly-line offense can frustrate opposing pitchers at times. Miami has a .737 OPS against right-handed pitching on the road; that’s tied for the seventh-best mark in baseball. Burns has failed to toss more than 5.1 innings in four of his previous five outings. If the Fish manage to work up his pitch count, they could break through late. Cincinnati has a 4.50 bullpen ERA, sixth-highest in the majors.
Best Bet: Marlins ML (+104)
Burns, while great, hasn’t looked quite as dominant since the start of July. The Marlins aren’t a great offense, but they are good enough to make the right-hander work. As for Alcantara, his superior command and lack of home runs allowed weakens Cincinnati’s two greatest strengths at the plate. Don’t be shocked if the veteran leads Miami to an upset win on the road tonight.
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