There’s a very real chance the Braves (73-48) finish with the third-best record in the National League. Were that to occur, they’d take on the Senior Circuit’s final wild card team in the playoffs. At the moment, the Diamondbacks (64-58) are a half-game out of qualifying for the postseason. Still, with over two months to go, Arizona is more than capable of playing its way into October. Friday’s matchup offers a mid-August litmus test for both of these contenders. Which side will come out on top in this potential postseason preview?
The Braves are favorites (-187) over the D-backs; the over/under is set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between Arizona and Atlanta on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Diamondbacks vs. Braves pick, best bet today
- Diamondbacks vs. Braves under 8.5 runs (-135): Sale is Sale; we know what to expect from Atlanta’s ace at this point. On the flip side, Pfaadt has been dominant over the past few weeks. Even if one of the two is less effective than normal tonight, a run line of 8.5 feels high considering the talent on the mound.
Diamondbacks vs. Braves prediction, preview
In this crucial three-game set, the Diamondbacks will need their starting pitching to step up. That includes tonight’s starter, Brandon Pfaadt. Through 85.2 innings of work (11 starts), the right-hander has notched a 3.36 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 54 strikeouts (5.7 K/9). The lack of whiffs, while concerning, don’t overshadow what’s been a bounce-back campaign from the 27-year-old. The right-hander has done well thanks to a stellar combination of elite command and hard-hit suppression. He ranks within the 72nd percentile on Savant in walk rate (6.7%), hard-hit rate (35.4%) and ground ball rate (48.9%).
Pfaadt comes into today’s contest on a hot streak, allowing no earned runs over his previous 20.2 innings of work. That includes a seven-inning, two hit performance last weekend vs. the Dodgers. Granted, continuing that success could prove difficult on Friday against a dangerous Braves lineup. They rank sixth in runs scored (591) and third in homers (164). With that being said, Pfaadt’s knack for keeping the ball in the park (0.8 HR/9) could come in handy tonight. Atlanta’s biggest weakness is plate discipline; the team is averaging the third-fewest walks per game (2.97) in baseball. As previously mentioned, Arizona’s hurler does an exceptional job when it comes to limiting free passes.
On the other side, it’ll be none other than Chris Sale toeing the slab this evening. It’s been another remarkable campaign for the left-hander, still considered one of the sport’s elite arms. Over 123.0 innings pitched (21 starts), he’s delivered a 2.20 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 151 strikeouts (11.0 K/9). In addition, the veteran leads the majors with a 0.6 HR/9 ratio. The southpaw’s peripherals are nothing short of immaculate. He ranks within the 85th percentile or better in xERA (3.10), chase rate (35.6%), whiff rate (30.7%), strikeout rate (30.6%) and walk rate (5.7%).
Coming off of a disappointing outing in New York, by his lofty standards, Sale should come out firing tonight. If there was ever a team that could hit the former Cy Young winner, it’s Arizona. The Snakes have a .788 OPS against left-handed pitching, second-best in baseball. Still, this is no normal southpaw. Sale has allowed one earned run in each of his previous two meetings with Arizona. The ten-time All-Star has thrown a slider 39% of the time this season, easily his most-used off-speed pitch. Against that offering, D-backs hitters have posted a mediocre .237/.291/.380 slash line.
Best Bet: Diamondbacks vs. Braves under 8.5 runs (-135)
Sale is a monster on the mound, making him almost impossible to fade tonight. Pfaadt’s knack for limiting homers, combined with his recent success, could cause problems for Atlanta’s bats as well. Although these are two above-average offenses, I trust the arms taking the hill more on Friday. As an alternative, consider under eight runs (-110).
More MLB Content & Betting Picks
- MLB Best Bets Today: Top NRFI props for Friday 8/14/26
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers prediction, pick for Friday 8/14/26
Tail all of today’s MLB action in the DKN Betting Group here.
