When the Los Angeles Dodgers acquired Eric Lauer earlier in the season as a reclamation project from the Toronto Blue Jays, they likely didn’t envision that he’d be a major piece of their rotation, but given how much time Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and Shohei Ohtani have missed, Lauer has proven valuable, even though he’s far from a guarantee to make the playoff roster.
Lauer will be Los Angeles’ fourth consecutive lefty starter (following Justin Wrobleski, Tarik Skubal, and Snell) when he takes the mound for tonight’s 10:10 p.m. ET series finale against the Kansas City Royals. It’s the first time this season that the Dodgers have started four straight lefties
First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Daniel Lynch IV will serve as the Royals’ starter.
Let’s break down this potential sweep-clincher with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Dodgers Best Bets
- Kansas City Royals O3.5 Runs (-120): Despite his poor outing his last time out, Lauer’s floor is pretty high and his ceiling is low, as he fairly consistently gives up three or more runs. Los Angeles’ bullpen simply isn’t talented enough to hold Kansas City scoreless.
- Bobby Witt Jr. 2+ Hits + Walks + Stolen Bases (-102): Witt is a very well-rounded superstar, posting a 100th-percentile expected batting average, a 61st-percentile walk rate, and 98th-percentile baserunning run value. He’s posted at least two H/BB/SB in five of his last eight games.
Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Dodgers prediction, preview
Kansas City’s one-run loss in the middle game last night was its fifth defeat in six games, including its third by a single run. That’s been the story of the season for the Royals so far, as they’ve gone just 16-21 in one-run games. Kansas City simply doesn’t have enough talent on offense; despite Bobby Witt Jr.’s continued two-way brilliance and Jac Caglianone’s second-year rise, the Royals rank just 18th in OPS since the All-Star break and 21st overall. Additionally, Kansas City has had baseball’s seventh-worst rotation and its second-worst bullpen, and trading Kris Bubic (an All-Star in 2025) to Los Angeles surely won’t help. Moving Lynch from the bullpen to the rotation also robs the Royals of its only reliever with a sub-3 ERA in more than 40 innings pitched, though at least Randy Dobnak has a 2.00 mark in seven appearances (five starts).
Still, despite winning each of the first two games, the Dodgers are arguably in colder form. They’ve lost eight of their last 11 games, and their division lead is down to just 8.5 games. For all of its offensive talent, Los Angeles has had just the 13th-best offense since the All-Star break, as Mookie Betts’ form has dipped further and both Will Smith and Dalton Rushing are now out with long-term injuries, leaving only light-hitting Hunter Feduccia and Ben Rortvedt as catcher options. Additionally, while the Dodgers have had the fourth-best rotation (having Yamamoto, Ohtani, and now Skubal helps with that), their bullpen has continued to be an issue, posting a 4.87 ERA in the second half. Tanner Scott, Alex Vesia, and Edgardo Henriquez have been solid, and Bubic will help once he returns from his injury, but their marquee signing, Edwin Díaz, has been horrendous. Los Angeles has the pieces to put together a fearsome playoff bullpen, but it’s just about utilizing its talent in optimal roles.
Lynch has made just one start this season, last Friday in a loss to the Chicago Cubs, but he was a full-time starter up until 2023, posting a 5.69 ERA in 15 starts in 2021, a 5.13 mark in 27 starts in 2022, and a 4.64 mark in nine starts in 2023. Additionally, he’s been very solid out of the bullpen this season, pitching to a 1.96 ERA before blowing up in his lone start. Advanced numbers are kind to him, as he sports a 76th-percentile expected ERA and an 87th-percentile pitching run value. Lynch only has one glaring weakness; although his 28th-percentile strikeout rate certainly isn’t ideal, especially against a Dodgers team that has been fanned the fifth-fewest times in the league, his ability to induce grounders and to avoid barrels and hard hits will definitely be an asset. Plus, Lynch ranks in the 77th percentile in whiff rate, and Los Angeles has some of the best bat-to-ball skills in baseball. He’s been slightly worse on the road, and it’s worth factoring in some uncertainty given that he hasn’t pitched into a third inning this season, but given his strong efforts all season and the Dodgers’ relative offensive struggles at home, it’s certainly plausible that Lynch could turn in a decent outing (say, four innings and one earned run).
Lauer, on the other hand, is coming off of his worst start for Los Angeles. In his prior nine appearances (eight starts) for the Dodgers, he’d pitched to a 2.96 ERA, but he imploded against the Chicago Cubs last Wednesday, allowing six runs on 11 hits in four innings of work. Advanced numbers suggest that he’s gotten pretty fortunate, as between his stints in Toronto and Los Angeles, he sports just an 18th-percentile expected ERA and a 28th-percentile expected batting average. He’s excelled at incentivizing chases, which could exacerbate issues for an already-aggressive Kansas City team, but he ranks in the fifth percentile in both strikeout and whiff rate, and the Royals have elite contact skills. Furthermore, Lauer has really struggled to keep the ball down, as he has a sixth-percentile ground ball rate; that could be a bad combination tonight, as Kansas City has done a good job getting the ball up and Dodger Stadium has been baseball’s most homer-friendly venue this season. To be fair, Lauer has a career 3.17 ERA at the venue and the Royals have been significantly worse on the road, so it wouldn’t be incredibly surprising for him to rebound, but this pitching matchup is much more even than most between these teams.
Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Dodgers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Kansas City Royals O3.5 Runs (-120)
Even though Lauer likely won’t be as bad as he was in his previous start, he has given up at least three earned runs in five of his 10 outings as a Dodger, not leaving much room for error for a pretty mediocre bullpen. Kansas City has scored at least four runs in four of its last five games.
Strong Lean: Bobby Witt Jr. 2+ Hits + Walks + Stolen Bases (-102)
Witt has stepped up his offense slightly since returning from a two-week stint on the Injured List with back tightness, as he’s had at least two H/BB/SB five times in eight games and was caught stealing to rob him of another. Lauer’s poor expected batting average and mediocre performance in the running game should allow Witt to step up.
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