The second fight on the Main Card at tonight’s UFC Fight Night is a three-round Women’s Strawweight contest between Amanda Lemos and Alexia Thainara. Lemos enters this fight on a two-fight losing streak and is 2-4 in her previous six contests. Thainara is 14-1 with eight finishes and is currently on a 12-fight winning streak.
Check out my best bet below for Amanda Lemos vs. Alexia Thainara at today’s UFC Fight Night.
Alexia Thainara to Win by Decision (-110)
Thainara is 3-0 in the UFC and is coming off a unanimous decision victory against Bruna Brasil in March. Coincidentally, Thainara’s first career loss came against Brasil in 2019, so she avenged that previous defeat. At UFC 292 in August 2023, Lemos challenged Zhang Weili for the Women’s Strawweight title but came up short. Since then, she has struggled to keep up with the rising talent at 115 pounds.
In this contest, Thainara is a -265 favorite with Lemos being a +215 underdog on DraftKings Sportsbook. This fight is -185 to go the distance and +140 for it to end early. The over/under is 2.5 rounds, and the over is -220 with the under being +170.
Both fighters in this contest are 5’4″, but Thainara has a two-inch reach advantage (67″ vs. 65″). Thainara’s all-around skill set is much better than Lemos’, as the rising contender averages more significant strikes per minute (4.62 vs. 2.75) while landing more takedowns per 15 minutes (4.54 vs. 1.02). Thainara has won back-to-back fights and four of her previous six by decision. Lemos is a tough fighter to finish, as she has only two losses by knockout or submission in the previous seven years. I’m backing Thainara to beat Lemos by decision, which is -110. If Thainara takes the fight to Lemos and implements each area of her game, a victory is likely.
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