The Blue Jays (54-62) surprised many with their deadline acquisition of Jose Soriano. The former Angels pitcher will be making his Toronto debut this evening in a marquee pitching matchup. Opposing him will be Zack Wheeler and the Phillies (62-54). Can Philadelphia and its superstar hurler keep pace in the loaded National League?
The Phillies are favorites (-206) on the moneyline; the over/under is set at 7.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between Toronto and Philadelphia on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Blue Jays vs. Phillies pick, best bet today
- Blue Jays vs. Phillies under 7.5 runs (-103): Toronto’s offense is a mess, setting Wheeler up for another successful outing. As for Soriano, his knack for limiting home runs could keep Philadelphia’s homer-happy lineup in check.
Blue Jays vs. Phillies prediction, preview
As previously mentioned, it’ll be Soriano on the bump for the Blue Jays this evening. It’s been a breakout campaign for the righty, who has pitched in the relative anonymity of Orange County. Over 123.0 innings with the Angels (22 starts), he’s notched a 3.29 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 127 strikeouts (9.3 K/9). The Dominican has been consistent as well, allowing three earned runs or fewer in ten of his last 12 appearances. A move to Toronto, with one of baseball’s better defensive teams backing him up, should only help. The Jays are 11th in the majors with 20 defensive runs saved.
Soriano excels at limiting the long ball; the fourth-year pro has a minuscule 0.7 career HR/9 ratio. That puts him in a great spot against one of the most power-laden lineups in baseball. Philadelphia has slugged 145 home runs this season, eighth-most in baseball. However, that’s the only thing this group does exceptionally well. As a unit, the Phillies are 15th in runs scored (512), 21st in batting average (.239) and 20th in OPS (.709). To be fair, the acquisition of Luis Arraez is already paying major dividends on offense. Regardless, this lineup is the definition of all-or-nothing right now.
As for the Phillies, it’ll be standout arm Wheeler toeing the slab this evening. It’s been another dominant campaign from the veteran, in the mix for his first career Cy Young award. Over 105.0 innings of work (18 starts), he’s notched a 2.49 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 126 strikeouts (10.8 K/9). If he wasn’t recovering from an injury in April, those numbers would look even more impressive. The right-hander ranks within the 90th percentile among qualified starters in xERA (2.59), chase rate (36.6%) and strikeout rate (31.3%).
Taking care of business shouldn’t be too difficult tonight for Wheeler. Toronto comes into Friday’s matchup as the lowest-scoring offense in all of baseball. That’s without factoring in a trade that sent outfielder Dalton Varsho to Houston this week. The Blue Jays are averaging an MLB-worst 3.89 runs per game. They rank 30th in on-base percentage (.302), 28th in home runs (110) and 30th in OPS (.678). Middling arms have made this lineup look silly; who knows what they’ll do against a three-time All-Star.
Best Bet: Blue Jays vs. Phillies under 7.5 runs (-103)
Team debuts are always tricky, but Soriano’s ground ball-heavy approach puts him in a good spot tonight. As for Wheeler, he shouldn’t have much issue tempering a dismal Toronto offense. In a battle between two of the sport’s better pitchers, expect limited scoring on Friday.
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