Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday’s loaded slate: Jo Adell, Jackson Chourio and Shohei Ohtani.
Let’s break them down.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Jo Adell | +364 | Adell has crushed left-handed pitching in 2026 to the tune of a .306/.341/.573 slash line with a .266 ISO and a 150 wRC+. Meanhwhile, not only does Noah Schultz possess a 5.82 ERA and a 5.67 xERA, but he’s conceded a 20th percentile opponent barrel rate (9.5%) in tandem with generating a paltry 14th percentile whiff rate (20.7%). That’s a combo that usually means a lot of hard, loud contact. |
| Jackson Chourio | +415 | Chourio is on fire in the month of August. It’s a small sample size, but the former top prospect has hit a long ball in two of his last three contests, and he’s rocking a 200 wRC+ since the calendar flipped. For the season as a whole, Chourio also owns a 90th percentile average exit velocity (92.2). Zebby Matthews has surrendered a stunning 2.51 opponent home runs per nine on the road in 2026. |
| Shohei Ohtani | +288 | After mashing a pair of long balls in the Dodgers’ most recent game on Wednesday, Ohtani is slashing .484/.556/.968 with a 300 wRC+ in his last eight contests. Now he’ll get to face Merrill Kelly, who owns a first percentile xERA in 2026 (7.17) and a second percentile opponent barrel rate (13.2%). Kelly’s also given up 2.03 long balls per nine to opposing LHBs. |
In-depth analysis below.
Top MLB Home Run Props Today
Jo Adell 1+ Home Run (+364)
Adell has yet to hit a home run since being traded to the Guardians. Tonight is the night that changes. The former 10th-overall pick has crushed left-handed pitching in 2026 to the tune of a .306/.341/.573 slash line with a .266 ISO and a 150 wRC+. Let’s just say he has a type. Meanwhile, the southpaw that will take the mound this evening for the White Sox isn’t exactly thriving. Noah Schultz has the stuff to be an MLB pitcher, yet the rookie’s campaign has been underwhelming from a statistical standpoint. Not only does Schultz possess a 5.82 ERA and a 5.67 xERA, but he’s conceded a 20th percentile opponent barrel rate (9.5%) in tandem with generating a paltry 14th percentile whiff rate (20.7%). That’s a combo that usually means a lot of hard, loud contact.
Jackson Chourio 1+ Home Run (+415)
One quick note off the top: Keep an eye out for Jake Bauers odds in this market. The first baseman leads the Brewers in home runs (20) and expected slugging percentage against RHPs (.513), yet because he’s missed the team’s past three games, he isn’t currently listed on the DraftKings Sportsbook. If he’s eventually in the lineup, that’ll change. In the meantime, let’s talk Jackson Chourio, who is on fire in the month of August. Obviously it’s a small sample size, but the former top prospect has hit a long ball in two of his last three contests, and he’s rocking a 200 wRC+ since the calendar flipped. For the season as a whole, Chourio also owns a 90th percentile average exit velocity (92.2). That’s all bad news for Zebby Matthews, as the RHP will get re-called from Triple-A to start Friday’s tilt for the Twins. In road games in 2026, Matthews has surrendered a stunning 2.51 opponent home runs per nine. Woof.
Shohei Ohtani 1+ Home Run (+288)
You can’t get Ohtani out at the moment. Like, even more than usual. After mashing a pair of long balls in the Dodgers’ most recent game on Wednesday, Ohtani is slashing .484/.556/.968 with a 300 wRC+ in his last eight contests. There’s hot, and there’s whatever this is. Clearly you’d be considered rational for betting Ohtani to hit a home run tonight without any more information, yet we haven’t even gotten to the best part of his case: The matchup with Merrill Kelly. The veteran RHP owns a first percentile xERA in 2026 (7.17), which makes sense given the fact he’s conceded a second percentile barrel rate (13.2%) and a sixth percentile hard hit rate (45.4%). Overall, Kelly’s given up 2.03 long balls per nine to opposing LHBs. Ohtani is going to eat him alive.
