After sweeping the Guardians, the Mets (50-66) are looking to rack up some more wins this week. New York, a non-factor in this season’s playoff race, still has enough talent to make teams sweat. As for the Pirates (57-60), a three-game losing streak has brought these upstarts below .500. If Pittsburgh is going to make a postseason push, it’ll need to take care of business against rebuilding clubs. Which side has the edge going into Friday’s matchup?
The Pirates are favorites (-129) over the Mets; the over/under is set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between New York and Pittsburgh on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mets vs. Pirates pick, best bet today
- Pirates ML (-129): The Pirates added several high-leverage relievers at the trade deadline, turning a weak bullpen into a potential strength. Mlodzinski, Friday’s starter, could flummox New York with his dangerous split-finger as well. In comparison, Thornton faces a significant challenge on the road tonight against an elite lineup.
Mets vs. Pirates prediction, preview
Zac Thornton isn’t a household name, but he’s impressed during limited action. Over six outings (34.1 IP), the rookie has notched a 2.88 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 24 strikeouts (6.3 K/9). That includes quality starts against above-average Braves, Brewers and Red Sox lineups over the past month. Where the southpaw truly excels is at limiting home runs (0.8 HR/9). A stellar 7.5% walk rate also helps limit traffic on the base paths. Still, a 4.83 xERA suggests that negative regression could be on the horizon. Thornton coughed up four runs (three earned) over 4.2 innings last week vs. the Marlins.
The youngster will face a notable challenge this evening at PNC Park. The Pirates have been a force all season at the plate, ranking fourth in runs per game (5.03). It’s worth noting that the team is without several quality hitters at the moment, including Oneil Cruz (hand) and Ryan O’Hearn (quad). As a result, the Buccos are 28th in runs scored over their last ten contests (32). Still, sleep on this group at your own risk. Pittsburgh is putting up an MLB-best 5.44 runs per game when playing at home. This patient, contact-oriented lineup has the potential to frustrate an inexperienced arm such as Thornton.
As for the Pirates, it’ll be Carmen Mlodzinski on the bump this evening. The 27-year-old is an ideal swing man, operating as both starter and reliever this season. Through 94.1 innings pitched, he’s put up a 3.15 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 76 strikeouts (7.3 K/9). Although he’s expected to start tonight, the right-hander is unlikely to go more than three frames in this one. Manager Don Kelly will likely turn to his bullpen early tonight. That hasn’t been a strength for the Pirates this season, but there’s hope for improvement. Midseason trades for Camilo Doval, Kirby Yates, Lake Bachar and former Mets setup man Luke Weaver give Pittsburgh late inning firepower. In short, this crew has been completely revamped in the span of a week.
Unlike the Pirates, New York’s offense doesn’t move the needle right now. Juan Soto (calf) is sidelined, leaving an already top-heavy lineup in dire straits. In spite of this week’s outburst in Cleveland, it’s difficult to envision the Mets racking up runs throughout the second half. The team is averaging just 4.02 runs per game on the road, sixth-fewest in baseball. High-priced bats such as Bo Bichette (88 wRC+) and Marcus Semien (77 wRC+) remain ineffective at best. Mlodzinski has utilized a splitter on over a quarter of his pitches (27%). Against that offering, Mets batters are slashing .156/.202/.272 this season.
Best Bet: Pirates ML (-129)
A revamped Pirates bullpen, led by Mlodzinski and his splitter, should give Pirates fans some hope on Friday. If Pittsburgh’s relievers are due for better results, the opposite is true for Thornton. New York’s rookie has out-performed his peripherals, and now has to face a dangerous lineup on the road. Despite both clubs sitting below .500, the Buccos possess the superior team.
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