What a difference one month can make. At the start of July, both the Astros (59-57) and Padres (60-56) were considered potential trade deadline sellers. Now, these two clubs are postseason contenders. Houston has an offensively-minded roster, powering past most opponents. It’s a different story for San Diego, a team that possesses several standout pitchers. Which side will emerge victorious during Friday’s interleague clash at Petco Park?
The Padres are favorites (-108) over the Astros; the over/under is set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between Houston and San Diego on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Astros vs. Padres pick, best bet today
- Padres ML (-108): The Padres are in a groove at the plate, making this a potentially dangerous spot for Blanco. In comparison, Ray could find success against a Houston lineup that struggles against lefties.
Astros vs. Padres prediction, preview
As previously mentioned, pitching has been a lingering issue for Houston. The team is hoping that Ronel Blanco can provide some stability in this rotation. Since making his season debut on July 20th, the Dominican has allowed 12 runs over 14.2 innings (7.36 ERA). Still, that’s a small sample size; Blanco possesses a 3.65 ERA over 66 career appearances in the majors. The 32-year-old has always had a knack for generating ground balls and strikeouts. During his most recent start vs. Miami, the veteran recorded eight punch outs in just 4.2 innings.
If there’s a major downside to Blanco’s skillset, he tends to hand out plenty of free passes. The righty is responsible for a lackluster 4.0 BB/9 ratio throughout his four-year career. San Diego batters are working 3.40 walks per game, 11th-most in baseball. For much of the season, that was the only upside for a dismal Friars offense. However, this group has begun to turn things around at the plate. Since July 1st, the Padres are seventh in runs scored (161), second in on-base percentage (.346) and seventh in OPS (.764). Struggling bats such as Jackson Merrill and Manny Machado have looked like their old selves, giving a once-mediocre lineup much needed depth.
San Diego was busy at the trade deadline, bringing aboard a pair of high-profile starting pitchers. One of those two, Robbie Ray, is set to make his debut with the club this evening. Over 122.2 innings (21 starts) in San Francisco, the former Cy Young winner has posted a 3.08 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 107 strikeouts (7.9 K/9). During his last four outings, the 34-year-old has surrendered three earned runs (1.29 ERA). The southpaw isn’t much of an advanced metrics darling, but that’s been the case throughout his career. Ray’s favorite pitch is the slider, which he’s thrown 27% of the time this season. Against that offering, Astros batters are slashing .200/.253/.388.
To be fair, this Houston lineup has been good against almost every other pitch this season. They’re ninth in runs scored (540), third in homers (157) and sixth in OPS (.738) this season. Leading the way is MVP favorite Yordan Alvarez. The Cuban is slashing .329/.442/.640 to go with an American League-best 35 homers and 85 RBIs. He’s accompanied by the trio of Jeremy Pena (147 wRC+), Isaac Paredes (117 wRC+) and Christian Walker (116 wRC+). However, it’s worth noting that the Astros aren’t as dangerous against southpaws. Their .702 OPS vs. left-handed pitching is just the league’s 17th-best mark.
Best Bet: Padres ML (-108)
The Astros wield a more potent offense, but San Diego has been improved in that regard as of late. On the mound, there’s far more reason to trust Ray than Blanco, a hurler with erratic command. Houston’s middling numbers against left-handed pitching can’t be ignored either. At home, I’ll take my chances with the Padres as slight favorites.
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