A pivotal three-game set is on tap this weekend in the Windy City. The White Sox (59-55) are a feel-good story, emerging as a playoff contender following years of futility. To clinch a postseason berth, they’ll have to fend off the pesky Guardians (57-59). Cleveland, having won the AL Central two seasons in a row, is hoping to make a statement in Chicago. Which side will emerge victorious during Friday’s series opener?
The Guardians are favorites (-140) over the White Sox; the over/under is set at 7.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between Cleveland and Chicago on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Guardians vs. White Sox pick, best bet today
- Guardians ML (-140): Given Messick’s recent success, he comes into Friday as a difficult pitcher to fade. In a spot between two struggling offenses, the advantage goes to the Guardians and their standout pitcher tonight.
Guardians vs. White Sox prediction, preview
Cleveland comes into tonight’s game at a low point, having been swept at home by the Mets. However, Friday’s game presents an opportunity to get back on track. That’s due in part to the presence of Parker Messick, the de facto ace of this pitching staff. Through 129.2 innings of work (22 starts), the right-hander has notched a 2.57 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 128 strikeouts (8.9 K/9). Per Savant, he sits within the 85th percentile in xERA (3.09), barrel rate (4.9%) and hard-hit rate (32.6%). Messick has allowed exactly one earned run in each of his last five outings.
One of those performances from Cleveland’s ace came on July 4th against none other than the White Sox. What’s been a stellar offense all season has gone through a bit of a rough patch. Over the past month, the South Siders have a middling .657 OPS; that’s tied for the fifth-worst mark in the majors. Still, it’s diffcult to overlook an offense averaging nearly five runs per game at home. Fortunately, Messick’s profile bodes well in this spot. The rookie phenom has done an exceptional job at limiting homers (0.8 HR/9). In comparison, Chicago has slugged the seventh-most long balls in baseball (148).
Even if their lineup struggles, the White Sox have shown a knack for hanging around in low-scoring games. However, that may prove difficult following Thursday’s 13-inning defeat in Boston. This now-depleted Chicago bullpen usually serves as a fallback option for Noah Schultz. The former top prospect has struggled during his brief tenure in the big leagues. Through 65.0 innings (13 starts), he’s on the hook for a 5.82 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 58 strikeouts (8.0 K/9). Schultz hasn’t tossed more than five frames in any of his previous seven appearances. Shaky command (4.3 BB/9) has prevented the youngster from going deep in most games.
If there was ever a team Schultz could find success against, it’s the Guardians. They are 28th in runs scored (459), 28th in home runs (110) and 29th in OPS (.680). Still, an influx of youth has given this organization some hope at the plate. Outfielder Chase DeLauter was named July’s American League Rookie of the Month. Top prospect Angel Genao was called up earlier this week; the infielder has already racked up five hits over two games. Franchise cornerstone Jose Ramirez (102 wRC+) remains a factor as well. If there’s one thing this group does well, it’s work the count. Cleveland is averaging 3.64 walks per game, seventh-most in baseball. As previously mentioned, Schultz has a knack for putting runners on.
Best Bet: Guardians ML (-140)
This is a fairly lopsided pitching matchup between two young arms. Cleveland’s offensive ineptitude makes this a difficult team to trust. However, the same can easily be said of Chicago’s lineup in recent weeks. Keeping that in mind, I’d rather back the superior pitcher during Friday’s AL Central affair.
More MLB Content & Betting Picks
- MLB Best Bets Today: Top NRFI props for Friday 8/7/26
- MLB Best Bets: Top home run props for Friday 8/7/26
Tail all of today’s MLB action in the DKN Betting Group here.
