Fortunes change quickly in baseball. Last season, the Minnesota Twins sold off basically their entire squad at the trade deadline, and it looked as if they’d have to undergo a lengthy rebuild. However, Minnesota is just one game behind the final AL Wild Card spot.
The Twins have lost each of the first two games of their current series against the Kansas City Royals, though, putting a dent in their playoff hopes. They’ll hope to pull a game back tonight in the series finale.
First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Bailey Ober will start for Minnesota, and Kansas City will put its faith in Michael Wacha.
Let’s break down this AL Central clash with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals Best Bets
- Kansas City Royals Moneyline (-119): I might be putting too much stock into a two-game difference across an 18-game sample size, but the Royals have been the better team since the All-Star break, and Wacha is a better pitcher than Ober.
- Over 9 (+100): Neither of these offenses has been in great form as of late, but Ober has consistently gotten shelled on the road, and Kansas City has posted the 10th-highest home OPS in baseball this season.
Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals prediction, preview
In an average season, the Twins likely wouldn’t be anywhere near the playoff picture, but the AL Central has been thoroughly mediocre this season, and despite never climbing more than four games above .500, Minnesota has not trailed by more than seven games. The Twins are off to a respectable 8-10 start to the second half, and they currently have a 21.8% chance to make the playoffs. However, Minnesota’s offense has gone cold at the wrong time, falling to 24th in OPS since the Midsummer Classic, and given its lack of offense depth, it might continue to struggle until Byron Buxton returns from his hip injury. Additionally, the Twins have had both a bottom-10 rotation and bullpen, and while their bullpen has been better since the All-Star break, their rotation has posted an ERA north of 5. Minnesota was a moderate buyer at the trade deadline, trading for relievers A.J. Minter and Jeff Hoffman, as well as starter Dean Kremer, who performed rather well in his first appearance for the team.
The Royals, meanwhile, went on an eight-game losing streak early in the season and haven’t recovered, and they’re one of three American League teams virtually out of playoff contention entirely at 48-67. Although Kansas City has actually been better after the All-Star break, sitting at 10-8, the focus is already on next season. There have been some positive signs, though; the Royals have maintained roughly a league-average offense, as Bobby Witt Jr. remains one of the league’s top-tier superstars and Jac Caglianone has had a solid sophomore season. Kansas City’s pitching has been a disaster, as it’s had the eighth-worst rotation and second-worst bullpen in baseball, but at least its starters have been better across the second half of the season, with Noah Cameron finding his form. The Royals were moderate sellers at the trade deadline, sending former ace Kris Bubic to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Ober has been better than last season, but he’s still only a slightly above replacement-level pitcher. In 16 starts this season, he’s pitched to a 4.45 ERA, including a 3.98 mark since returning from the injured list at the start of July. His highs (a two-hit shutout against the Miami Marlins on May 12) have been spectacular, but his lows (a 4.2-inning, seven-run disaster against the Pittsburgh Pirates on May 30 in his final start before his IL stint) have been low. Ober’s xERA is right in line with his actual mark, but he has his strengths and weaknesses. He’s been excellent at avoiding walks, ranking in the 78th percentile in that stat, and Kansas City does not walk much as is. Additionally, because he predominantly throws changeups, he’s done a good job avoiding hard hits, which could help quiet a powerful Royals lineup. The issue is that he’s been bad at inducing whiffs or strikeouts, two relative strengths of Kansas City’s, and he doesn’t have a strong fielding team to back him up. Plus, he has extreme home-road splits, pitching to a 7.15 ERA on the road, and the Royals have posted an OPS 85 points higher at Kauffman Stadium.
Wacha has been Kansas City’s best starter this season. The veteran has posted a 3.51 ERA this season in 22 starts, his fifth consecutive season with an ERA between 3 and 4, and he’s allowed two or fewer earned runs on 13 separate occasions, including each of his last three starts. Advanced numbers suggest that he’s gotten a bit lucky, as his 4.12 xERA is a below-median mark, but he should still have an advantage over Ober. He’s also been good at avoiding walks, and like the Royals, the Twins don’t earn many free passes either. Minnesota should also mitigate his biggest weakness, as while he has just a 20th-percentile whiff rate, the Twins have hit air at the ninth-highest rate. Plus, Kauffman Stadium has been kind to Wacha, as he has just a 3.03 ERA at home this season, and Minnesota’s offense has performed similarly whether at home or on the road.
Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals pick, best bet
Best Bet: Kansas City Royals Moneyline (-119)
Wacha has a pretty significant edge in the starting pitching matchup over Ober, especially given how poor the Twins starter has been on the road this season. I don’t necessarily trust Kansas City’s offense, but I don’t trust Minnesota’s, either.
Strong Lean: Over 9 (+100)
Bad pitching could take precedence over bad hitting here, as Ober has allowed at least three earned runs in five of his seven road starts. The Royals’ ice-cold bullpen could push the game over the line after Wacha’s night ends.
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