Of the 12 teams that would make the playoffs if the season ended today, two rank in the league’s bottom five in payroll, and astoundingly, both would be the top two seeds in the American League. That the Tampa Bay Rays, who have been regular participants in the postseason for the better part of the 2020’s, are in position for the AL’s top seed isn’t a massive surprise, but the Chicago White Sox, who currently hold the second seed, have definitely over-achieved.
The second half of the White Sox’s season has started with series against fellow AL playoff contenders, but no team has tested Chicago more than the Boston Red Sox, who won each of the first two games of the series.
The series finale is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Newly-acquired Luis Castillo will start for the White Sox, while Ranger Suarez will take the mound for the Red Sox.
Let’s break down this potential playoff preview with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox Best Bets
- Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+109): So far, Boston has out-scored Chicago this series, 18-4, winning both games by multiple runs. Since the start of July, there have only been 10 games the Red Sox didn’t win by multiple runs.
- Munetaka Murakami – 1st Plate Appearance – Exact Result: Strikeout (+135): All the splits work against Murakami here: he has struck out in 31 of his 75 first-inning plate appearances and 40 of his 104 against lefties, and he has a slightly higher strikeout rate on the road.
Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox prediction, preview
Chicago was widely expected to improve after it went a respectable 28-37 after the All-Star break last season, but not even the most optimistic White Sox fan could’ve realistically expected to have a first-round bye. But despite series against the Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers, Houston Astros, New York Yankees, Tampa Bay, and Boston, Chicago is a solid 9-9 since the Midsummer Classic, holding on to a three-game lead atop the AL Central. After a hot start, the White Sox have had dipped to roughly a league-average offense for the season as a result of their difficult slate since the Midsummer Classic, but with six players aged 26 or younger with an OPS+ above the league median, the future is bright. Chicago has even had an above-average bullpen, and it just acquired Huascar Brazobán, an upgrade over Seranthony Domínguez. The White Sox did need a fifth starter to help their below-average rotation, and if he can regain some of the form he showed prior to this season, Castillo should be that, and then some.
No team is hotter than the Red Sox, though. Boston started out 10-17 before firing long-time manager Alex Cora, and even on July 1, it was just 37-48. Then, the Red Sox turned in a franchise record-tying 15-game winning streak, and they’re up to 26-3 in their past 29 games. Boston has had the league’s fourth-best offense since the All-Star break, with Willson Contreras posting a 1.015 OPS across that span and Ceddanne Rafaela (.992) and Wilyer Abreu (.921) almost equally unstoppable. It also paid a hefty price to upgrade its catcher from Carlos Narváez (.535) to Adley Rutschmann (.764). That sort of offensive production, combined with the Red Sox’s elite pitching, makes them a juggernaut. They’ve had the eighth-best rotation in the majors this season, led by Sonny Gray’s league-leading 14 wins, and the ageless Aroldis Chapman continues to be one of the best closers in baseball for the only bullpen with a sub-3 ERA. With lefty reliever Erik Miller now in the building and 2025 Cy Young Award runner-up Garrett Crochet potentially slated to return before the playoffs, there’s no reason to believe the Red Sox can’t go on a run.
Castillo is an extremely solid veteran with a 3.65 career ERA in 260 career starts, but he gave up seven earned runs on two separate starts in April and hasn’t really recovered his ERA since, sitting at 5.06 after combining for 12 earned runs across his last three starts. Advanced numbers don’t paint a positive picture of him, as he ranks in only the 22nd percentile in expected ERA and the 17th percentile in expected batting average. Castillo has struggled in almost all areas of the game, as his only strengths are his chase and walk rates, which have been some of Boston’s weaknesses as is. His weaknesses should allow the Red Sox to stay hot, as he ranks in the 17th percentile in both barrel rate and average exit velocity and Boston has posted the second-highest slugging percentage since the All-Star break. Additionally, although the Red Sox have hit a few too many grounders, Castillo is a fly-ball pitcher with a below-median pulled fly ball rate in each of the past five seasons. He has a 4.24 career ERA in three starts at Fenway Park, where Boston has actually been slightly worse this season despite its hitter-friendly nature.
Suarez should have the edge in the starting pitching matchup. He’s proven to be a solid free agency signing, pitching to a 3.15 ERA in his 19 starts, and although he hasn’t been quite as good in July, giving up three earned runs in three of his last four starts, he’s had seven scoreless outings this season and has only allowed more than four runs once. Advanced numbers are a fan of him; although he doesn’t throw the ball hard, he sports a 74th-percentile expected ERA, and he ranks in the top three deciles in both strikeout and walk rate, which should be an asset against a team that walks at a league-average rate and strikes out a ton. Chicago’s boom-or-bust offensive style should allow him to get away with his below-median whiff rate, and his top-sextile barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity could help quiet the White Sox’s powerful bats. To be fair, Suarez has been slightly worse at home this season, but Chicago has been less effective on the road. He also should have a significant platoon advantage over the White Sox’s most dangerous hitter, Munetaka Murakami.
Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox pick, best bet
Best Bet: Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+109)
Castillo has had a poor season, and several other high-profile pitchers moved at this trade deadline struggled in their first starts with their new teams. It’s just hard to bet against the Red Sox until they start to cool off.
Strong Lean: Munetaka Murakami – 1st Plate Appearance – Exact Result: Strikeout (+135)
Murakami has exceeded all expectations since arriving from Japan, but he’s struggled to hit lefties so far in his brief MLB career. 40 strikeouts in 104 plate appearances against southpaws is quite poor.
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