A crucial NL Central clash is on tap this evening in Milwaukee. The Pirates (57-58) are 3.5 games out of a wild card spot, vying for their first playoff appearance since 2015. On the other side, the Brewers (70-43) currently own the best record in baseball. Which of these division rivals will come out on top tonight?
The Brewers are favorites (-127) over the Pirates, with the over/under set at seven runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Wednesday’s showdown between Pittsburgh and Milwaukee on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pirates vs. Brewers pick, best bet today
- Pirates ML (+119): This is a value play. Skenes hasn’t looked great recently, and the Pirates have done a poor job of providing run support. However, that makes this the perfect time to back the right-hander. Buy low on the Buccos at plus money tonight.
Pirates vs. Brewers prediction, preview
It’ll be none other than Paul Skenes on the bump tonight. For all his otherworldly talent, it’s been a disappointing campaign from the right-hander. He comes into tonight’s game with a 3.90 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 156 strikeouts (11.3 K/9). The reigning NL Cy Young winner has coughed up five earned runs over his previous two outings. Still, there’s no reason to assume this is anything other than a bump in the road. Per Savant, Skenes sits within the 83rd percentile or better in xERA (2.93), xBA (.209), strikeout rate (30.5%) and walk rate (6.3%). That rare combination of wipeout stuff and elite command makes Pittsburgh’s ace a difficult matchup for any hitter.
The Brewers, despite their league-best record, have a serious lack of power. They’ve hit an MLB-worst 103 home runs this season. The squad makes up for it by ranking inside the top five in batting average (.254) and on-base percentage (.337). On most occasions, an assembly line offense is more than enough. However, stringing together hits against one of baseball’s premier arms is easier said than done. Over 12.1 innings pitched against Milwaukee this season, Skenes has allowed four hits and two earned runs (1.46 ERA). The 24-year-old has thrown a fastball on 41% of his pitches, topping out at around 97 MPH. Against four-seamers at that speed or higher, Brewers batters are slashing .226/.313/.345.
As for the home team, it’ll be Kyle Harrison making his 18th start on Wednesday. The right-hander suffered from forearm tightness to start July, sidelining him for nearly a month. During 83.2 innings pitched this season, he’s produced a 3.01 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 101 strikeouts (10.9 K/9). It’s worth mentioning that he’s been nearly unhittable when pitching at home (1.53 ERA). Still, some rust wouldn’t come as a shock tonight following a lengthy absence. Harrison isn’t much of an innings eater anyways, tossing less than six frames in 11 of his 17 appearances.
This isn’t the easiest spot for a pitcher being activated off of the injured list. Pittsburgh has been a force at the plate, averaging the third-most runs per game in baseball (5.08). Granted, key hitters such as Ryan O’Hearn (quad) and Oneil Cruz (hand) are sidelined at the moment. In addition, the Pirates have scored the fifth-fewest runs in baseball (51) over their last 15 contests. With that being said, the visitors have the second-best OPS against right-handed pitching (.771).
Best Bet: Pirates ML (+119)
Skenes has to break out of his slump eventually (right?!?). Wednesday presents a rare opportunity to back the superstar at plus money. Harrison has proven himself, but it’s reasonable to wonder if he’s at 100% tonight following an extended hiatus. Factor in a lineup that does damage vs. righties, and it’s easy to see why the Pirates make sense at +119.
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