Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Wednesday’s all-day slate: Kyle Stowers, Ty France and Jac Caglianone.
Let’s break them down.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Stowers | +328 | Stowers hit eight home runs in July. After that stellar month, he now owns a .255 ISO and a 130 wRC+ against RHPs in 2026. Meanwhile, Bryce Edler has given up a home run in each of his last nine starts. It’s a span where he’s conceding 2.64 opponent long balls per nine. |
| Ty France | +556 | France is slashing .300/.367/.488 with a 136 wRC+ off southpaws in 2026. He also leads all San Diego hitters in expected slugging percentage within the split (.460). The lefty in question? Mitch Bratt, who sports a massive 49.3% fly ball rate in his rookie campaign. It’s no wonder he’s giving up 1.74 home runs per nine for the Diamondbacks. |
| Jac Caglianone | +349 | Caglianone boasts 98th percentile bat speed (77.4) and a 98th percentile hard hit rate (55.3%). He oozes raw power. Now he’ll get the chance to face Dean Kremer, has surrendered 3.00 opponent home runs per nine in his seven MLB starts in 2026. Woof. |
In-depth analysis below.
Top MLB Home Run Props Today
Kyle Stowers 1+ Home Run (+328)
It was a bit of a slow burn to start the season for Stowers, but after hitting eight home runs in the month of July, the outfielder’s numbers against right-handed pitching are pretty much back where you would expect them to be. In his 296 plate appearances within the split, Stowers owns a .255 ISO and a 130 wRC+. He’s a classic left-handed power bat with extreme splits. Ho hum. Speaking of things getting back to normal, after a stunning run in April to begin 2026, Bryce Elder is back to his usual self. In fact, in the nine starts Elder has made dating back to the beginning of June, he’s given up at least one home run in all nine. That totals out to 2.64 long balls per nine innings. Not exactly what you want to see if you’re a Braves fan, but a great stat if you’re looking to invest in the home run props market on Wednesday.
Jac Caglianone 1+ Home Run (+349)
Look, Dean Kremer’s 3.81 xFIP is nearly three full runs lower than his 6.50 ERA. I know that. I also know that’s Kremer’s striking out a batter per inning and he’s in possession of a career-high 24.8% strikeout rate. I can wrap my head around why the Twins acquired him at the deadline. With that said, Kremer has also surrendered 3.00 opponent home runs per nine in his seven MLB starts in 2026. That’s exceedingly bad! That’s not a stat I can ignore, especially in this market. The RHP will make his Minnesota debut on Wednesday night in Kansas City, and I expect that Caglianone will be able to do some damage. The former sixth-overall pick has two long balls in his last five games, and for the season, Caglianone boasts 98th percentile bat speed (77.4) and a 98th percentile hard hit rate (55.3%). He oozes raw power.
Ty France 1+ Home Run (+556)
While Manny Machado (+372) is probably the obvious route for a Padres’ bat to back for a home run this evening, France’s odds are very enticing — and they only get better that more you dig into the stats. The veteran first baseman is slashing .300/.367/.488 with a 136 wRC+ off southpaws in 2026. He also leads all San Diego hitters in expected slugging percentage within the split (.460). He’s worth a real look in this matchup with Mitch Bratt, who has conceded 1.74 opponent home runs per nine across the first five starts of his career. To be completely honest, walks have been a larger issue for the rookie LHP, but Bratt also sports a 49.3% fly ball rate and just a 12.2% strikeout rate. That is the profile of a man who is going to serve up a lot of long balls in his life.
