Tarik Skubal’s debut in Dodger Blue was spoiled last night in the Windy City. The Cubs (65-49) and their pesky lineup managed to earn an impressive 5-1 victory at home on Tuesday. Now, these two National League contenders are set to clash for the final time in this three-game series. Los Angeles (69-45), in the midst of a five-game losing streak, will hope to avoid a sweep in Chicago. Which of these clubs has the advantage this afternoon?
The Cubs are favorites (-118) over the Dodgers, with the over/under set at 9.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Wednesday’s showdown between Los Angeles and Chicago on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Dodgers vs. Cubs pick, best bet today
- Cubs ML (-118): The Cubs have impressed during the first two games of this series. After taking down Skubal, they get a far more manageable assignment today in Lauer. With an All-Star in Imanaga on the mound, the home team makes sense as slight favorites.
Dodgers vs. Cubs prediction, preview
Despite their superteam status, the Dodgers have had to get creative on the mound this season. That includes a midseason pickup of Eric Lauer, let go in May by Toronto. Since joining Los Angeles, the right-hander has looked like a completely different pitcher. During nine outings with his new club (eight starts), Lauer has notched a 2.96 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 30 strikeouts (5.2 K/9). Is all this sustainable? Probably not; the 31-year-old sits below the tenth percentile in major categories such as whiff rate (18.2%), strikeout rate (15.3%) and barrel rate (11.2%). That’s without mentioning his proclivity for inducing fly balls, a dangerous proposition against some of the sport’s better lineups.
Wednesday’s matchup presents a notable challenge for Lauer. While somewhat streaky, this Chicago offense is undoubtedly one of baseball’s best. The team is averaging 5.13 runs per game, second-most in the majors this season. The headliner for the Cubs is Pete Crow-Armstrong, making a strong push for National League MVP. Over 114 games, the center fielder is slashing .284/.384/.535 with 24 home runs and 28 steals. As a unit, the Cubbies are sixth in homers (141) and third in OPS (.754). All that being said, the biggest thing working against Lauer today might be Wrigley Field. Winds in center field could get up to 10 MPH, giving an added boost to any fly balls. That’s bad news for Los Angeles’ soft-tossing veteran. To make matters worse for the Dodgers, their bullpen has a dismal 5.07 ERA since July 1st.
A windy outfield isn’t ideal for any pitcher, including Shota Imanaga. In many ways, the Japanese hurler is a better version of Lauer. He too is a fly ball pitcher, albeit with a more refined arsenal to fall back on. Through 127.2 innings of work (22 starts), the southpaw has recorded a 3.67 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 119 strikeouts (8.4 K/9). The 32-year-old comes into today with momentum, allowing three combined runs over his previous four starts (1.09 ERA). He’s been slightly worse at home (3.94 ERA), not a surprise given the North Side’s erratic weather.
Even with some external variables, Imanaga is more than capable of holding his own this afternoon. That’s especially true when considering Los Angeles’ matchup issues on Wednesday. All-Stars Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts are a combined one-for-19 (.052 BA) vs. Imanaga. Even Shohei Ohtani (.250 BA) has been kept in check by his countryman. The Dodgers have scored four runs or less in five of their last seven matchups. That’s without factoring in the loss of Dalton Rushing (elbow); the rookie’s absence leaves LA in desperate need of production at catcher. Over the past month, the defending champs are 22nd in OPS (.688).
Best Bet: Cubs ML (-118)
A sputtering Dodgers offense is bound to wake up eventually, but this afternoon could prove difficult. Imanaga does have a tendency to give up the long ball, but he’s entering today’s game on a hot streak. As for Lauer, his fly ball-heavy approach could backfire against Chicago’s big bats. I’ll take my chances today with a superior pitcher and lineup that looks more locked in.
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