Historic franchises are set to clash this evening against the backdrop of Wrigley Field. The Yankees (62-48) earned a 2-0 win on Friday afternoon, thanks to a masterful start from Will Warren. Max Fried will attempt to follow suit on Saturday for New York. As for the Cubs (62-48), every game matters going forward in the top-heavy National League. Can Chicago bounce back tonight in this marquee matchup?
The Cubs are favorites (-120) over the Yankees, with the over/under set at 6.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Saturday’s showdown between New York and Chicago on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Yankees vs. Cubs pick, best bet today
- Yankees ML (-101): It’s fair to say the Cubs wield a more potent lineup than the injury-depleted Yankees. However, New York has the clear pitching edge with Fried up against Chicago’s Peterson. That alone is enough to consider backing the visitors at even money tonight.
Yankees vs. Cubs prediction, preview
Unlike in years past, pitching is a massive strength for the Yankees. This squad leads the league in ERA (3.28) and home runs allowed (106), despite injures to several key contributors. That includes Max Fried, who missed over two months due to an elbow bruise. When healthy, the three-time All-Star is one of the sport’s most dangerous arms. Through 69.2 innings (12 starts) this season, he’s notched a 3.23 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 61 strikeouts (7.9 K/9). It’s been a mixed bag for the veteran since being activated off the injured list. Fried allowed just one hit over five innings on July 22nd vs. Pittsburgh, before coughing up three runs over three frames against the White Sox. Still, some rust is to be expected following an extended absence.
With that being said, the Cubs are the type of team that can take advantage of erratic pitching. This lineup, while streaky, is among the best in baseball. Chicago is fourth in runs scored (564), tenth in home runs (134) and fourth in OPS (.752). Leading the charge is MVP candidate Pete Crow-Armstrong, who paces the majors with a 6.5 bWAR. He’s accompanied by several standout hitters, such as Seiya Suzuki (131 wRC+), Michael Busch (112 wRC+) and Ian Happ (109 wRC+). The North Siders also own the league’s second-best OPS vs. left-handed pitching (.788). However, Fried isn’t any old southpaw. The former Braves hurler has a 1.76 ERA over seven career meetings with the Cubs.
The Cubs made a minor splash back in June when they traded for David Peterson. The former Mets hurler struggled mightily in Queens, but has showed gradual signs of improvement in Chicago. Over five games with his new club, the lefty has posted a 5.06 ERA. However, he’s allowed two runs or fewer in four of those appearances. Peterson’s biggest issue, throughout his seven-year MLB career, is command. He ranks inside the 37th percentile in walk rate (9.3%) to go with a subpar 3.8 BB/9 ratio.
A lack of control isn’t ideal heading into today’s matchup. Although the Yankees have struggled at the plate in recent weeks, this is still a disciplined lineup. They’re averaging 3.68 walks per game, second-best in the American League. In addition, New York has the eighth-best OPS in baseball against left-handed pitching (.725). When Peterson last faced the Pinstripes on May 16th, he coughed up six hits, three walks and two runs in just four innings. That doesn’t bode well for the 30-year-old’s chances tonight.
Best Bet: Yankees ML (-101)
This is a fairly even matchup between two contending clubs. Chicago has the edge on offense at the moment, but that could be nullified by Fried. In comparison, it’s still difficult to put a ton of faith in the mercurial Peterson. In terms of value, the Yankees make more sense to back this evening at even money.
More MLB Content & Betting Picks
- MLB Best Bets: Top home run props for Saturday 8/1/26
- MLB Best Bets Today: Top NRFI props for Saturday 8/1/26
Tail all of today’s MLB action in the DKN Betting Group here.
