It’s Saturday, which means every team in the majors is set to take the field. As a result, there’s more than enough opportunities to smack some home runs. Still, on such a loaded slate, picking a few names to go deep is easier said than done.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Saturday’s full slate: Matt Olson, Carter Jensen and Max Clark.
Let’s break them down.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson | +265 | Olson is fourth in the NL with 29 homers. His .508 xSLG, 14.5% barrel rate and 50.5% hard-hit rate place him among the top 90th percentile of all batters. In comparison, Miles Mikolas is one of the most homer-prone pitchers on Earth (2.0 HR/9). Olson has gone deep twice in his career against the veteran; he’s poised to do so again this evening. |
| Carter Jensen | +346 | Jensen supplied Kansas City’s only run last night, a solo shot against the Rockies. Another low-scoring affair at Coors Field is unlikely on Saturday. Colorado’s Ryan Feltner comes into this one with a terrible 1.9 HR/9 ratio. Left-handed batters own a .481 slugging percentage against the hurler as well. A southpaw with pull power such as Jensen could do some damage in this one. |
| Max Clark | +460 | Clark kicked off his major league career with an impressive three-hit performance on Friday. Now, he’ll get a chance to take on one of baseball’s worst pitchers in Jack Perkins (6.45 ERA). It helps that the rookie will be taking the field at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park. Clark smacked 11 homers in Triple-A this season, eight of which came against right-handed pitching. At nearly five-to-one odds, he’s worth a closer look tonight. |
In-depth analysis below.
Top MLB Home Run Props Today
Matt Olson 1+ home run (+265)
Does +265 feel a bit too low for a home run prop? Maybe, but it’s for good reason in Matt Olson’s case. Atlanta’s slugger has been on a tear this season, slashing .263/.340/.529 with 29 home runs. That latter mark is fourth-best in the National League. The first baseman sits within the 90th percentile or better in xSLG (.508), average exit velocity (92.7 MPH), barrel rate (14.5%) and hard-hit rate (50.5%). Now, the All-Star gets one of the league’s most favorable pitching matchups on Saturday. Miles Mikolas has been a human homer dispenser this season. Over 102.0 innings, he’s posted a 5.65 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and a whopping 2.0 HR/9 ratio. During 17 career at-bats vs. Mikolas, Olson has slugged two home runs. There’s a decent chance he adds to that total tonight.
Carter Jensen 1+ home run (+346)
As is always the case, home runs are in high demand at Coors Field. However, the Royals and Rockies combined for just two long balls on Friday. One of those dingers was slugged by Carter Jensen. The catcher has been a bright spot on an otherwise mediocre Kansas City offense. Through 103 games, he’s notched a .731 OPS with 15 homers. As a lefty with a knack for pulling the ball, the backstop could do even more damage this weekend. Colorado’s Ryan Feltner has been vulnerable when it comes to giving up big flies (1.9 HR/9). To boot, the hurler sits within the bottom 27th percentile in barrel rate (11.6%) and hard-hit rate (42.0%). At better than three-to-one odds, Jensen has the best value on the board in this matchup.
Max Clark 1+ home run (+460)
During his major league debut on Friday, Max Clark impressed. Detroit’s highly touted prospect went three-for-four at the dish, lacing a pair of doubles in the process. The outfielder isn’t a traditional power hitter, profiling as more of an all-around, five-tool threat. However, there’s a lot of life in his bat. During 362 at-bats this season with Triple-A Toledo, Clark delivered 11 homers and a .434 slugging percentage. Eight of those home runs came against right-handed pitching. It helps that the rookie’s first MLB series comes at Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park, a hitter’s paradise. The Athletics will send Jack Perkins to the mound tonight, which should have the Tigers licking their chops. Perkins is on the hook for a 6.45 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 1.4 HR/9 ratio over 68.1 innings pitched. Even if the righty is given a short hook, a lackluster A’s bullpen doesn’t inspire much confidence. Don’t be shocked if the 21-year-old drives one into the seats.
