Mere weeks ago, the Red Sox were ten games under .500 and looking ahead to next season. One month later, and Boston is in the thick of the American League playoff race at 58-51. That includes an impressive 9-4 victory over the Dodgers (69-41) on Friday night. How will the defending champions respond this evening in Los Angeles?
The Dodgers are favorites (-168) over the Red Sox, with the over/under set at 7.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Saturday’s showdown between Boston and Los Angeles on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Red Sox vs. Dodgers pick, best bet today
- Dodgers -1.5 (+128): The Dodgers are a superteam, and it’s almost impossible to envision them dropping two straight at home. That’s especially true with Yamamoto facing a Boston lineup that could be without its best hitter. Expect Los Angeles to secure a comfortable win on Saturday.
Red Sox vs. Dodgers prediction, preview
In this marquee pitching matchup, Boston will hand the ball to Payton Tolle. The rookie has been a force on the mound, looking the part of a grizzled veteran. Over 95.0 innings (17 starts), he’s accounted for a 3.32 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 103 strikeouts (9.8 K/9). Unsurprisingly, the lefty has been even better when pitching away from Fenway Park. Tolle comes into Saturday with a terrific 2.89 ERA and 0.96 WHIP on the road. These numbers are no fluke, either. The 23-year-old ranks inside the 87th percentile or better in xERA (2.91), xBA (.206) and chase rate (35.1%). During his most recent outing, Tolle tossed 5.2 innings of two-run ball at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park in Sacramento.
For all his recent success, Boston’s hurler will face one of the biggest challenges of his young career tonight. The Dodgers are lethal at the plate, blending a perfect mix of star power and quality depth pieces. Shohei Ohtani is the straw that stirs the drink, vying for his third straight National League MVP. Over 100 games, he’s slashing .291/.394/.545 with 24 home runs and 67 RBIs. Even if the superstar has a rare off night, there’s more than enough talent backing him up. Six Dodgers with at least 100 plate appearances have a wRC+ above 100. In addition, Los Angeles owns the sixth-best OPS against left-handed pitching (.739).
As for the reigning champs, it’ll be none other than Yoshinobu Yamamoto toeing the slab. It’s been yet another fantastic campaign from the Japanese phenom. Through 125.2 innings pitched (19 starts), he’s recorded a 2.72 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 118 strikeouts (8.5 K/9). At this point, the righty deserves mention among the sport’s best arms. Yamamoto has allowed three earned runs or less in 17 of his 19 outings so far. During his three seasons in the majors, Yoshi has compiled a minuscule 0.8 HR/9 ratio.
That last statistic could come into play during tonight’s matchup. The Red Sox, despite a recent turnaround on offense, still struggle to hit for power. They’ve slugged an American League-worst 105 home runs. To boot, the status of Willson Contreras (concussion), who leads the team with 23 homers, is uncertain as of Saturday afternoon. Boston has notched a .683 OPS vs. right-handed pitching, third-worst in all of baseball. Even during the club’s July hot streak, they remain below-average when facing righties. Yamamoto’s most dangerous weapon is a nasty splitter, which he’s thrown on nearly 30% of his pitches this season. Red Sox batters are slashing .239/.268/.359 against that offering this season.
Best Bet: Dodgers -1.5 (+128)
With respect to the new and improved Red Sox, this is about as tough a spot as it gets. Yamamoto is a beast, and he’s supported by one of the best lineups in recent history. Los Angeles has done well against lefties, a troubling sign for a relatively unproven arm such as Tolle. Simply put, it’s difficult to envision the Dodgers losing two straight at home with their ace in action.
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