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Prediction, pick for Usman Nurmagomedov vs. Archie Colgan at PFL New York

Prediction, pick for Usman Nurmagomedov vs. Archie Colgan at PFL New York

MMA Sports Betting Picks PFL DraftKings Network

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By: Ryan Wohl

The No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter in the PFL, Usman Nurmagomedov, will defend his Lightweight Championship against Archie Colgan in the Main Event of tonight’s event. This is Nurmagomedov’s second title defense, and he enters this fight with a 21-0 record and 15 wins by finish. As of right now, this is the final fight on Nurmagomedov’s PFL contract, and unless he agrees to an extension, he would become a free agent after this contest. 

Check out my best bet below for Usman Nurmagomedov vs. Archie Colgan at tonight’s PFL event.

RELATED PFL New York: Nurmagomedov vs. Colgan Full Card, Odds, Start Time & How to Watch

Over 4.5 Rounds (-210)

Usman is the younger brother of UFC Bantamweight contender Umar Nurmagomedov and cousin of former UFC Lightweight Champion Khabib Nurmagomedov. Their legendary camp also includes UFC Welterweight Champion Islam Makhachev. At 28, Usman Nurmagomedov has put together quite the resume. From 2021 to 2024, he went 7-0 in Bellator en route to winning the title before competing in the PFL. He is coming off a third-round submission against Alfie Davis in February, which was his first submission victory since March 2023. 

Colgan, 31, also enters this bout undefeated as he is 13-0 with six finishes. In 2025, Colgan went 2-0 with wins over Jay-Jay Wilson and Mansour Barnaoui. Colgan has been training at ONX Sports in Colorado, which is an MMA gym led by one of the top coaches in the sport, Trevor Whittman. UFC Lightweight Champion Justin Gaethje and former Welterweight title holder Kamaru Usman also train at ONX Sports. Colgan will look to follow in Gaethje’s footsteps by pulling off the upset as a big underdog. That is because Colgan is +320 while Nurmagomedov is a -410 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

In this contest, Nurmagomedov is two inches taller (5’11” vs. 5’9″) with a reach advantage (72″ vs. 69.5″) as well. While still being so young, Nurmagomedov hasn’t reached his final form and continues to improve his game and refine his skills. With his physical advantages, Nurmagomedov should be able to score takedowns, which will be the difference-maker in this matchup. Since four of Nurmagomedov’s last five wins have come by decision, I’m taking this fight’s over of 4.5 rounds at -210. 

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Ryan Wohl
Ryan Wohl
Ryan is a University of Arizona graduate and Philadelphia native. Since 2024, he has been a writer for DraftKings Network, primarily covering combat sports. He is a big Philly sports fan and loves to collect sneakers, as well.
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