After tonight, July will be over, and just two months of baseball will remain before the playoffs begin. It’s especially crunch time for teams on the bubble. More than half the league knows that it’s likely in or out of the postseason tournament, but for a few teams, every game is a make-or-break affair.
That’s especially true of the series between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Cleveland Guardians, which will begin tonight with a 7:10 p.m. ET matchup. Cleveland currently holds a one-game lead in the race for the AL’s final Wild Card spot at 56-54, and Arizona is tied for the NL’s second Wild Card spot at 57-52. The Diamondbacks hold the tiebreaker over the Philadelphia Phillies and have a two-game lead over the San Diego Padres.
For tonight’s series opener, Mitch Bratt will start for Arizona, and the Guardians will turn to Tanner Bibee.
Let’s break down this must-win clash with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Guardians Best Bets
- Under 8.5 (-105): The Diamondbacks’ slight offensive improvement since the start of July has been accompanied by better pitching, and the Guardians have remained poor offensively while having an elite pitching staff.
- Gabriel Moreno 2+ Hits (+210): Every season, it feels like another Arizona infielder breaks out, and this season, it’s been Moreno, who ranks third in the league in batting average over the last 30 games.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Guardians prediction, preview
The Diamondbacks fell to 45-47 and just a 14.7% chance to make the playoffs on July 8 after a stretch of 23 losses in 37 games, but they’ve heated up at the right time, going 12-5. It’s now basically a coin flip that they’ll make the postseason, as they have a 47.0% chance at FanGraphs and -105 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. Across July, Arizona’s bats have heated up, as despite ranking just 21st in OPS for the season as a whole, the Diamondbacks have had the 13th-best offense this month. Despite both Ketel Marte and Geraldo Perdomo struggling, catcher Gabriel Moreno has emerged as one of the best offensive backstops in baseball, posting a .930 OPS since the start of the month. Additionally, Arizona has been a top-10 pitching staff this month, although its bullpen (especially closer Paul Sewald) has been quite poor since the All-Star break. The Diamondbacks will certainly be looking for relief help at the trade deadline, in addition to a right-handed batter.
Meanwhile, Cleveland is in a better playoff position despite its worse record because it’s still in a division title race, just two games behind the Chicago White Sox. As such, FanGraphs gives the Guardians a 50.4% of ultimately making the postseason and DraftKings Sportsbook -130 odds. As in recent seasons, Cleveland has struggled mightily at the plate, ranking dead last in OPS for the season as a whole and 21st in the month of July, but in rookies Chase DeLauter and Travis Bazzana, at least there’s a light at the end of the tunnel. League-average offense is basically all the Guardians ever need, as they’ve once again been a top-seven pitching staff by both rotation and bullpen ERA. Gavin Williams is one of the league’s strikeout kings and Parker Messick will likely receive some Cy Young Award votes, and Matt Festa aside, every member of their bullpen has been solid (even if unspectacular). Per usual, Cleveland is expected to target bats, especially to shore up its outfield with Steven Kwan having a down season.
Bratt was a trade deadline acquisition last summer, but he hasn’t done much so far in his brief MLB career, pitching to a 6.32 ERA in his first four career starts. Still, there’s a reason the 23-year-old was called up; he’s made 13 starts for the Triple-A Reno Aces and recorded a 2.41 ERA, an especially impressive feat given the elevation (4,500′), and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see him turn it around. His Statcast numbers obviously aren’t impressive, but his 5.10 xERA is better than his actual mark, and he’s done a good job limiting hard contact, exacerbating one of the Guardians’ biggest weaknesses as is. Although his inability to generate whiffs or strikeouts and his occasional trouble with walks could prove problematic against a team with a patient plate approach, Arizona has one of baseball’s best fielding teams behind him. He’s started his stint in the rotation with a trio of extremely difficult matchups in the Los Angeles Dodgers, Athletics, and Washington Nationals, and tonight’s test should be far easier. He’s posted a sub-3 ERA on the road across all levels, and even though it’s been better at home, Cleveland still ranks 22nd in home OPS.
Like Bratt, Bibee has gotten unlucky, but in a different way. He’s tied for the MLB lead in losses with 10 despite posting a 3.89 ERA, allowing three or fewer earned runs in all but four of his starts but getting the fifth-least run support of any qualified pitcher. He also ranks seventh in quality starts. However, advanced stats don’t paint such a positive picture of Bibee, as he ranks in just the 33rd percentile in expected ERA. While he’s been good at avoiding walks, that’s been one of the Diamondbacks’ weaknesses as is, and he’s been slightly below-average in just about every other category. Bibee’s inability to incentivize chases could help neutralize one of Arizona’s biggest weaknesses, and while the Diamondbacks haven’t exactly hit the ball hard, Bibee hasn’t induced much soft contact. The Guardians’ fielders also haven’t been as good as Arizona’s, so a game with more contact should benefit the visitors. The splits should be slightly in Bibee’s favor, as although he’s been slightly worse at home, the Diamondbacks have struggled offensively away from hitter-friendly Chase Field.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Guardians pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-105)
A majority of each team’s last five games have gone under the total. Despite Bratt’s poor performance in his first four MLB starts, I believe in the track record he’s demonstrated in Triple-A, and this Cleveland offense is just terrible, DeLauter and José Ramírez aside.
Strong Lean: Gabriel Moreno 2+ Hits (+210)
Over his last 60 games, Moreno has hit .341, a mark that would lead all of baseball across a full season, and he’s recorded 22 two-hit games in that span. Bibee most frequently throws sinkers to right-handed batters, and Moreno has posted a .418 batting average against righty sinkers this season.
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