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UFC Picks: Top DraftKings DFS Fantasy MMA Targets, Values for Ankalaev vs. Guskov

UFC Picks: Top DraftKings DFS Fantasy MMA Targets, Values for Ankalaev vs. Guskov

Published:

By: Ryan Wohl

For the first time, UFC 321 in October 2025 will be held in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Magomed Ankalaev is taking on Bogdan Guskov in the Main Event of this card. This card features 13 fights and starts with the Prelims at 9:00 a.m. ET and continues with the Main Card at 12:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+.

Set your DraftKings fantasy MMA lineups here: UFC $300K Throwdown [$100K to 1st].

Check out my favorite fighters to add to your daily fantasy lineup for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night event.

Studs

Valter Walker ($8,800)

Valter Walker is currently ranked No. 13 in the UFC’s Heavyweight division and is on a four-fight first-round submission streak. In his career, Walker is 15-1 with 11 finishes and hasn’t won a fight by decision since October 2022. He is facing Thomas Petersen, who beat Guilherme Pat in his previous bout in April. Petersen is 3-3 in his last six contests. 

During Walker’s winning streak, he has been an elite fantasy contributor, scoring 97-plus points in four consecutive contests. Walker is taller by five inches (6’6″ vs. 6’1″) with a four-inch reach advantage (78″ vs. 74″). On the ground, Walker averages 5.74 takedowns per 15 minutes at an impressive 69 percent rate. Striking-wise, Petersen has a slight advantage as he lands 1.10 more significant strikes per minute (3.10 vs. 2.00) than Walker while being more accurate (59% vs. 52%). 

Although Petersen has eight finishes, he hasn’t scored one since August 2023. Walker’s aggressive nature and quick pace have set him apart from his opponents recently. With Walker being the bigger fighter, he should be able to exert his dominance on Petersen, who has been too passive at times. 

Steve Erceg ($8,200)

After losing three straight fights from May 2024 to March 2025, Steve Erceg has gotten back on track with two consecutive wins over Ode Osbourne and Tim Elliott. Erceg is attempting to increase his winning streak to three for the first time since March 2024. He is facing Ramazan Temirov, who is on an 11-fight winning streak in the co-main event of this card. Temirov has won five of his previous six fights by first-round knockout.

But in this contest, Temirov could struggle to get going as Erceg is a much bigger fighter. Erceg has a five-inch reach advantage (68″ vs. 63″) while being four inches taller (5’8″ vs. 5’4″) than Temirov. Temirov has more knockout power, but Erceg is the better all-around striker. Erceg averages more significant strikes per minute (4.64 vs. 4.37) while having a higher striking accuracy (47% vs. 40%).

Erceg is coming off a performance where he scored 90.3 fantasy points, his most since March 2024. He has recorded at least 87 points in three of his previous four victories in the UFC. If Erceg can keep Temirov at range while being the more aggressive striker, he should be able to put out another positive outing.

Value Play

Bogdan Guskov ($6,700)

Bogdan Guskov’s last fight with Jan Blachowicz ended in a draw in December 2025 and was originally scheduled for a rematch. But instead, Guskov stepped up on short notice to fight Ankalaev after Khalil Rountree Jr. was forced to withdraw from the contest. Before his draw against Blachowicz, Guskov won four straight fights by knockout or submission. Now Guskov takes on another former champion, Ankalaev, who is coming off a loss to Alex Pereira. Before that, Ankalaev was on a 14-fight unbeaten streak.

Physically, both fighters match up similarly, as they are both 6’3,” with Guskov having a slight reach advantage (76″ vs. 75″). Although Ankalaev has the edge on the ground, he only averages 0.79 takedowns per 15 minutes, so that shouldn’t be much of a problem for Guskov. Statistically, Guskov is a better striker than the former champion as he lands more significant strikes per minute (4.57 vs. 3.65) at a better rate (55% vs. 52%). 

Yes, taking a fight against a former champion on short notice is a massive challenge. But Guskov was already in camp for another fight and has all of the skills to find success against Ankalaev. Getting Guskov at $6,700 is an unbelievable value and a potential contest-winning fighter. He has scored at least 96 fantasy points in four of his previous five contests. 

Set your DraftKings fantasy MMA lineups here: UFC $300K Throwdown [$100K to 1st].

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.