I previously wrote an article on DraftKings Network highlighting my belief that the Minnesota Vikings are being overlooked in preseason NFL betting markets. I think the value on Minnesota very well could trickle all the way into the NFL MVP market. Let’s breakdown why Kyler Murray is worth a long shot bet to win the 2026 NFL MVP.
The case for Kyler Murray to win NFL MVP
Let’s get this part out of the way first — to win NFL MVP your team has to have a very good season when it comes to the win column. The Vikings’ win total is set at just 8.5, but they have a high ceiling. For the full analysis on why I believe the Vikings could be one of the better teams in the NFC, read this article.
If you want the spark notes version of why Minnesota has so much potential, here you go. The Vikings started 2025 with just a 4-8 record, so it’s easy to forget how much success they’ve had in recent seasons. Let’s recall that Minnesota has won 13 or more games twice in the last four seasons. The Vikings also finished the 2025 season on a five-game winning streak, while getting bottom of the barrel quarterback play from Carson Wentz and Max Brosmer, after getting equally poor play from J.J. McCarthy to begin the season.
While most are down on Murray due to some recent injuries and how things ended in Arizona, we have to acknowledge Minnesota just made a massive upgrade at quarterback. If Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold can get this team to 13 and 14 wins, so can Murray.
Murray was drafted No. 1 overall by the Arizona Cardinals in 2019. Just once did he have a wide receiver go for over 1,000 yards in a season — De’Andre Hopkins in 2020. Trey McBride did it each of the last two seasons, but from the tight end position — and last season Murray only played five games, so we can really only count one of those as a year under his quarterbacking.
This Vikings’ wide receiver room offers Murray both the best WR he’s ever played with in Justin Jefferson, along with the most depth he’s had at the position — Jordan Addison and Jauan Jennings. It’s also worth mentioning that Murray is playing on a “prove it” deal to attempt to revive his career. If Murray shows out in 2026, he could be in line for another big contract. Much like what Darnold did in his season with the Vikings.
So all the pieces seem to be in place for a quarterback to thrive in Minnesota. The question becomes if Murray is still capable of doing so. I say yes.
After decent starts to some seasons in Arizona, injuries to Murray derailed both his success and the team’s success. But a couple of (mostly) healthy seasons were indicators of the type of success Murray can generate with a decent roster. The last healthy season he played was 2024 — 3,851 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, 572 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns. The Cardinals did not have a very good roster, but managed to go 8-9 in a tough division.
Back in 2021, Murray led Arizona to a 7-0 start, and was actually the betting favorite to win NFL MVP. Murray hurt his ankle and the Cardinals ultimately finished at 11-6. It’s a big ask to expect Murray to bottle up his previous success and play at that level while remaining healthy, but it is possible — particularly when you factor in a fresh start with a new franchise and the most talented roster he’s ever been on.
It’s a long shot for a reason, but Kyler Murray to win 2026 NFL MVP is worth a small bet.
NFL Long Shot Pick: NFL MVP – Kyler Murray (+5000)
