In the American League this season, almost anything is possible. That probably doesn’t include a postseason appearance for the Royals (43-60), one of baseball’s worst clubs. However, we can’t rule out a second-half run from the Tigers (48-54). Just 4.5 games out of a wild card spot, Detroit’s once-hopeless season has new life. Reeling off some wins prior to August 3rd’s trade deadline could change the trajectory for this franchise. Can they take care of business tonight at home against Kansas City?
The Tigers are favorites (-224) over the Royals, with the over/under set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s showdown between Kansas City and Detroit on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Royals vs. Tigers pick, best bet today
- Tigers -1.5 (-108): Low odds here? Maybe, but this bet makes too much sense. Dobnak is a relatively untested hurler, going up against an above-average Tigers offense. On the other side, Melton is one of the hottest pitchers in baseball. A Royals lineup missing Bobby Witt Jr. doesn’t stand much of a chance tonight.
Royals vs. Tigers prediction, preview
Former Twins hurler Randy Dobnak will take the mound for the fourth time this season. Once a key young arm in Minnesota’s rotation, injuries and inconsistent performance have prevented the 31-year-old from making an impact in the big leagues. Called up last week, he now slots into a Kansas City rotation desperate for contributors. Through 14.0 innings this season, Dobnak has recorded a 1.93 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and seven strikeouts. It’s a small sample size, but the veteran needs to bring down his sky-high 5.1 BB/9 ratio if he wants to ensure quality results.
The Tigers aren’t world-beaters on offense, but they’ve impressed as of late. Since June 1st, they’ve scored the tenth-most runs in all of baseball (210). The headliner in the Motor City is AL Rookie of the Year candidate Kevin McGonigle. Through 99 games, he’s slashing .282/.390/.424 at the plate. The shortstop is accompanied by fellow All-Stars Dillon Dingler (139 wRC+) and Riley Greene (137 wRC+). This is a fairly patient lineup, averaging the league’s ninth-most walks per game (3.51). As previously mentioned, Dobnak has had issues with his command this season.
Tarik Skubal is generating most of the headlines in Motown. However, don’t sleep on Troy Melton. Seemingly out of nowhere, the righty has become a valued member of Detroit’s pitching staff. Over 55.0 innings of work (nine starts), he’s notched a 1.80 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 50 strikeouts (8.2 K/9). His success is backed up by a pristine Savant page. Melton sits within the 70th percentile in xERA (3.03), xBA (.215), fastball velocity (96.2 MPH), walk rate (7.1%) and barrel rate (5.5%). He’s surrendered one earned run or fewer in each of his previous five appearances.
Teeing off against Melton is a tall order for most squads right now. That’s especially true for the Royals, who just placed face of the franchise Bobby Witt Jr. (back) on the injured list. Even with the shortstop active, this group doesn’t strike much fear into opposing pitchers. Kansas City is averaging an MLB-worst 3.72 runs per game on the road this season. To make matters worse, fellow slugger Jac Caglianone (shoulder) didn’t suit up yesterday against San Francisco. If the outfielder sits out for a second straight game, the Royals would be at a serious disadvantage this evening. Just three other players on the active roster with 200+ plate appearances have recorded a wRC+ above 100.
Best Bet: Tigers -1.5 (-108)
The Tigers are favored heavily this evening, and for good reason. Melton is dealing this season, shutting down some of the sport’s better lineups in the process. A Royals club missing Witt Jr. and potentially Caglianone shouldn’t cause too many problems. As for Detroit’s lineup, Dobnak isn’t an intimidating presence on the mound. Expect a comfortable win for the home team in this one.
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